…so…after a week or so of poor phone reception & an internet connection that was dependable in the same sense as the weather…which is to say not really inclined to allow for getting out much…obviously I was going to have a certain amount of catching up to do…but…damn

A nationwide drought alert was issued on Friday as a long-running and severe heatwave in China’s heavily populated south-west was forecast to continue well into September.

The loss of water flow to China’s extensive hydropower system has sparked a “grave situation” in Sichuan, which gets more than 80% of its energy from hydropower.

…sure…heatwaves…that wouldn’t be new or surprising at this point, right?

The Yangtze is the world’s third largest river, providing drinking water to more than 400 million Chinese people, and is the most vital waterway to China’s economy. It is also crucial to the global supply chain, but this summer it has reached record-low water levels, with entire sections and dozens of tributaries drying up. Water flow on the Yangtze’s main trunk is more than 50% below the average of the last five years. Shipping routes in the middle and lower sections have also closed, the SCMP reported.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/china-drought-causes-yangtze-river-to-dry-up-sparking-shortage-of-hydropower

…wait…what?

…the fucking yangtze river is running dry…there’s what…two bigger rivers out there on this spinning rock…& there’s still people out there trying to say there’s nothing to see here?

While widespread blistering heat, drought and wildfires have kept climate change in the public eye, they have also heightened tensions between those I call climate appeasers, who seek to minimise how bad climate breakdown will ultimately be, and others, disparagingly branded doomers (or doomists), who are honestly concerned that it may be catastrophic, perhaps even posing an existential threat to civilisation and possibly humankind itself.
[…]
Doomism in the climate arena is nothing new, and looking around at the extreme weather rampaging across much of the world this summer, it is easy to understand why many of us might be scared about the future. But doomer feelings are not just vague intuitions of something nasty lying in wait. Some in the climate science community have also been damned as doomers too, even by colleagues, and their forecasts of bleak, climate-trashed futures are vetted and published in academic journals.

…I’ve been known to sometimes try to distinguish between pessimism & unrequited optimism on the basis that the latter may be mistaken for the former but lacks the pervasive told-ya-so-derived smugness that can generally be found when the former has been borne out…but whichever way you think that shakes out…there’s definitely some things that land in the area of “better to have & not need than need& not have” for me…& call me a slave to logic…but that tends to include thinking some about things that would be potentially cataclysmic before…as the cliché has it…for good reason…too late

The tensions between doomers and appeasers have been especially strained recently by the widely advertised publication of a paper whose authors have been thinking the unthinkable on our behalf. They conclude that ominously termed “climate endgame” scenarios – including societal collapse and the extinction of humankind – have so far been “dangerously unexplored”, and call on the IPCC to compile a special report on bad- to worst-case scenarios.
[…]
While it would be nice to think that we are overplaying the threat of climate breakdown, following an appeaser line would be courting disaster. This is particularly the case as there seems to be a growing propensity to label pretty much anything outside the current consensus as doomist. But consensus doesn’t equate to being right. In fact, research has revealed that climate scientists as a tribe (of which I count myself a member), and IPCC reports underplay the speed and intensity with which climate breakdown is happening.

The reality is that our understanding of potential tipping points and feedback effects remains too poorly constrained for us to be confident of how severe climate breakdown will end up proving to be. Furthermore, minimising the potential impact of climate breakdown is more likely to lead to increased reticence in relation to slashing emissions than any potential exaggeration of the likely endgame.

A middle of the road route would be to no one’s advantage – so, as for most situations wherein the risk is hard to quantify, there is only one sensible way forward: to hope for the best, while preparing for the worst.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/climate-emergency-doomer-appeaser-precautionary-principle

…ok…so not to head straight back into a precipitous doom-spiral before I’ve even said hello, much less found out how much of this might be repeating a point someone else has made recently…it’s not like there aren’t people out there trying to take steps that may prove necessary

Welcome to the future of farming, where herbs, salads and soft fruits are grown year-round, in vast, indoor plant factories.
[…]
Farming this way could have numerous advantages. “One of the big benefits is that we’re growing in a way that doesn’t impact on nature,” said Charlie Guy, cofounder of LettUs Grow, a Bristol-based company that’s developing technology for vertical farms.

“It also means we can focus more of our land on things like tree planting. So, from a biodiversity standpoint, there are massive benefits.”

Because the nutrient-rich water bathing the plants’ roots is cleaned and re-used up to 30 times, there’s less wastage. There’s also no run-off of pesticides into neighbouring waterways, and no need for herbicides or pesticides, because the plants are shut away indoors.
[…]
Even so, as of 2020, only about 30 hectares (75 acres) of operational vertical farmland existed worldwide. A key challenge is that growing crops indoors, 24/7, requires a lot of electricity – to power the lights, heaters, humidifiers and other equipment.
[…]
Guy said: “Energy is always an issue with vertical farms, but when you tie that to renewable energy, then it really is a very sustainable way of growing food, versus importing it from around the world, and the sustainability and supply chain risk issues associated with that.”
[…]
Even if these plant pioneers can make vertical farming cost-effective, it is unlikely to replace traditional farming for staple crops, such as wheat, rice or potatoes. These have a longer growing period and require a lot of light, compared with herbs or salad leaves.
[…]
Where vertical farming could be viable is for crops with shorter growing seasons, such as salad leaves, herbs and soft fruits such as strawberries or blueberries.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/21/the-rise-of-vertical-farms-could-indoor-plant-factories-be-the-norm-in-10-years

…but…well…you might call those folks the little guy

The Clean Air Act of 1970 authorized the government to regulate air pollution.

The Inflation Reduction Act, which Joe Biden signed into law this past week, allocates more than $300bn to energy and climate reform, including $30bn in subsidies for manufacturers of solar panels and wind turbines.

Notice the difference?

The Inflation Reduction Act is an important step toward slowing or reversing climate the crisis. It also illustrates the nation’s shift away from regulating businesses to subsidizing businesses.

…I mean…that’s an oversimplification…right?

Before the 1980s, the US would have done all this differently. Instead of subsidizing broadband, semiconductors, energy companies, vaccine manufacturers, health care and pharmaceutical businesses, and the financial sector, we would have regulated them – requiring them to act in various ways.

If this regulatory alternative seems far-fetched today, that’s because of how far we’ve come from the regulatory state of the 1930s to the 1970s, to the subsidy state beginning in the 1980s.

Why the big shift? Because of the change in the balance of power between large corporations and the government.

Today it’s politically difficult, if not impossible, for government to demand that corporations (and their shareholders) bear the costs of public goods. Government must bribe them instead.

…a great many things may be a matter of perspective…but some forms of speculation are more rewarding than others

Spending by corporations on lobbying increased from $1.44bn in 1999 to $3.77bn in 2021 and is on track to exceed $4bn this year.

This tidal wave of corporate money has occurred at the same time large American corporations have globalized, to the point where many are able to play off the United States against other nations – demanding government subsidies in return for creating jobs and doing their cutting-edge research in America.
[…]
In truth, the three decades-long shift in power to big corporations has transformed industrial policy into a system for bribing them to do the sorts of things government once demanded they do as the price for being part of the American system.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/21/america-used-to-regulate-business-now-government-subsidises-it

…but you know…that’s-just-your-opinion-man-lebowski.gif…or robert reich’s anyway…& he could be argued to have a somewhat personal stake in the outcome of that bit of framing…but…it’s all too easy to see some ways he might have a point

Three years ago today, in a statement that would be described as “historic”, “monumental” and “revolutionary”, America’s most powerful and politically connected corporations promised to “protect the environment by embracing sustainable practices across our businesses”.

The “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation” came from the Business Roundtable, an influential Washington DC lobbying group whose 200-plus members include the chief executives of some of the world’s biggest companies, including Apple, Pepsi, Walmart and Google.

Today, on the statement’s third anniversary, the Business Roundtable and its member CEOs continue to issue earnest statements about the climate crisis. But the organization is also working diligently – and spending liberally – to weaken efforts that would enable investors to hold companies accountable for their climate promises.

…same as it ever was?

In 2021, the organization spent millions of dollars to stop the Biden administration’s Build Back Better agenda, which included significant efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote clean energy.

And this year, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a long-anticipated rule that would require publicly held companies to disclose their carbon emissions and the risks that climate change poses to their business models, the Business Roundtable declared its opposition to central aspects of the SEC proposal, including provisions that experts say are vital for the rule to give investors comparable and consistent information about corporations’ climate risks.
[…]
Before releasing the proposed rules in March, the SEC had asked the public what such rules might look like. In its response, the Business Roundtable acknowledged that “climate challenges are creating growing risks in many parts of the economy” and deemed it “appropriate” for the SEC to regulate climate disclosures.
[…]
But when the SEC shifted from requesting voluntary input to proposing mandatory requirements for climate disclosures, the organization appeared to change its tune. In a 17-page letter, the CEO lobby announced its opposition to the proposal and asked the commission to “revise and repropose the rule.”
[…]
Despite asking for a new, and thus delayed, proposal, the organization’s own members continue to assure the public that they see the climate crisis as an urgent challenge. “We’re out of time,” Cummins CEO and Business Roundtable member Tom Linebarger said in the organization’s January climate video. “We’re getting ready, to get ready, to get ready to do things. And the problem is that we have to move now.”

But “now”, it seems, does not mean now.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/19/top-us-business-lobby-group-climate-action-business-roundtable

…I guess you could say it might be important to consider your source…which so far might look like the guardian today…although they aren’t the only ones…but I’m thinking a further down the line is where the rubber meets that road

Each new claim over the attack that killed Darya Dugina seems to raise more questions than it answers.

On Monday, Russia’s FSB security service claimed to have cracked the case, publishing information and a video it said showed a Ukrainian woman from the country’s Azov regiment was responsible for the murder of Dugina, whose father is the far-right ideologue Alexander Dugin.

According to the FSB, the assassin managed to enter Russia with her 12-year-old daughter in tow, move around undetected while frequently changing the plates on her Mini Cooper, plant and detonate a professional explosive device, and leave the country.

Supposedly, she managed to do all this without being spotted by Russia’s security services until after she had fled, presumably by posing as one of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have either sought refuge in Russia or been forcibly deported from occupied areas of Ukraine.
[…]
However, the speed with which the FSB has come up with video “evidence”, as well as several rather puzzling aspects of its story, certainly raise red flags. For an agency that has failed to solve numerous high-profile murders in Russia, including of Putin critics, the speed of the FSB’s work on this case is as suspicious as its lack of progress elsewhere.
[…]
In the FSB’s version of events, a Ukrainian assassin was able to enter Russia, carry out a high-profile killing near the capital and then flee, all without being apprehended. The FSB footage shows the supposed assassin looking icily calm, with her young daughter in tow, as she enters and leaves Russia and moves around the capital.

If true, it is a shocking FSB failure and, if false, it is a strangely self-incriminating tale to invent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/russian-security-service-fsb-claim-to-have-identified-killer-of-darya-dugina-lacks-credibility

…it’s…odd…well…it’s odd in a lot of ways & given the form of those involved perhaps the least odd part is the fact that a lot of it’s pretty obviously self-serving bullshit…but in terms of stuff you might say in principle it sort of…I dunno…rhymes with

Many state legislatures are approving maps that eliminate competition in favor of more solidly Republican or Democratic districts. Approved maps are already facing legal challenges that could delay their use or lead to court-mandated changes. In the last redistricting cycle, legislative deadlocks and legal challenges resulted in many districts eventually being determined by courts.
[…]
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan agreed on April 4 to sign into law the state’s new congressional map. A previous version of the map was struck down by a judge who found it to be the “product of extreme partisan gerrymandering.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/redistricting-tracker-map/

…if you can make it over the paywall there’s a map you can play with to see how some of that looks…the folks at wapo are somewhat partial to that stuff but the URLs that include that “interactive” bit often seem harder to persuade to load than the ones that don’t…which is a shame since some of them are handily illustrative of one thing or another

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/redistricting-mini-golf/

…to be honest gerrymandering as illustrated by the metaphor of mini golf is not something I saw coming…but it’s not bad at getting the point across…& I guess along with the source it’s perhaps just as important to consider the audience…which, let’s face it…is often not the same as the people being directly addressed

Former President Donald Trump asked a judge Monday to order the appointment of a special master to oversee the handling of the documents seized in the search of his Mar-a-Lago estate two weeks ago.

The court filing also asks the judge to require the Justice Department to return materials not covered by the scope of the search warrant, which Trump’s team refers to as “overbroad.” The filing also calls the Justice Department’s decision to search the estate in Palm Beach, Florida, on Aug. 8 a “shockingly aggressive move.”

…I’ll never understand how people can go around saying things like “irony is dead” in a world where this sort of thing is alive & well

The federal magistrate judge who signed off on the search reiterated earlier Monday that there was “probable cause that evidence of multiple federal crimes would be found” at the estate and doubled down on his decision to authorize the search.

“Having carefully reviewed the Affidavit before signing the Warrant, I was — and am — satisfied that the facts sworn by the affiant are reliable,” wrote Judge Bruce Reinhart of the Southern District of Florida.
[…]
“President Trump wants the Attorney General to know that he has been hearing from people all over the county about the raid. If there was one word to describe their mood, it is ‘angry.’ The heat is building up. The pressure is building up. Whatever I can do to take the heat down, to bring the pressure down, just let us know,” the message said, according to the filing.

…seriously…there’s so much irony in this I’m genuinely concerned it’s going to achieve some sort of critical mass & overtake the climate change thing in the what’ll-be-the-doom-of-humanity stakes

Trump’s court filing criticizes Garland over what it refers to as a “hastily prepared press conference,” calling it “an ill-founded reaction to the public outcry” over the search.

…but that “reaction to the public outcry” part…funnily enough that puts me in mind of something else…so I’ll get to that in a minute & then get to the part where there’s tunes & I shut the hell up again…anyway…to finish up with this nonsense…at least in the sense of this particular piece from NBC

The court filing suggests that Trump’s rights under the Fourth Amendment were at issue.

“Law enforcement is a shield that protects Americans. It cannot be used as a weapon for political purposes,” the motion states. “Therefore, we seek judicial assistance in the aftermath of an unprecedented and unnecessary raid on President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/donald-trump-sues-fbi-search-mar-lago-estate

…see what I mean about that critical mass of irony?

As you no doubt know, Trump filed a document that purports to be a request for a Special Master last night, over a week after discussing privilege issues with DOJ and three days after promising a significant Fourth Amendment filing.

This document is a lot of things:

• A confession to a violation of the Espionage Act
• A confession to making a threat against the Attorney General
• A legal shit show
• Serial proof that a Trump search was conducted like other searches
• Filed in the wrong place at the wrong time
• Probably written in significant part by Kash Patel
• Not backed by sworn declarations to substantiate its “factual claims”
• An invocation not of special master reviews by Trump’s own personal attorneys but instead an invocation of a terrorist lawyer convicted of conspiring with that terrorist.

[…] My thread on it is here.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/23/trumps-reneges-on-promised-significant-fourth-amendment-filing/

…anyway…speaking of irony…& public reaction…remember bill you-won’t-believe-what-we-can-get-away-with barr?

…because one judge jackson certainly does…& she’s a little better placed to publicly state her opinions about that sort of thing than…say…merrick garland…though, again, it pays to have someone like marcy wheeler around to parse the legalese

In a post last year about what was then a still heavily-redacted Amy Berman Jackson opinion ordering DOJ to release a Barr memo covering up the Mueller investigation, I wrote that this might finally be the case where DOJ would be held accountable for bullshit claims made in service of protecting secrets in FOIA cases.
[…]
[just the other day], the DC Circuit decided that (unless DOJ appeals again) yes, this will be that case. It ordered DOJ to release the rest of the Barr memo and it did so for precisely the reasons ABJ laid out: DOJ had played games with its claims about what was in the memo.

…seriously…if you can find the time…do check out the emptywheel links…they point the way to more supplemental reading than anyone with stuff to do likely has time to follow all the way up on…but they point out a lot of things that largely aren’t on display in much of the quicker-to-read stuff that references what she’s talking about…like the part it’s tempting to equate to a judicial ruling of “no taksies baksies”

The Department contends that, even if the district court was not required to grant judgment in its favor, the court at least should have given the Department an opportunity to make supplemental submissions. We are unpersuaded by the Department’s assertion that the district court needed to sua sponte grant it a do-over.

The Department was given a number of opportunities to justify its withholding of the March 2019 memorandum. After initially attaching two declarations to its motion for summary judgment, the Department attached an additional declaration to its reply brief. Those three declarations, coupled with the Department’s two briefs, gave ample opportunity to identify Attorney General Barr’s messaging to the public as the relevant decisional process. But the Department never did so. Nor did the Department ask for an additional chance to clarify its position after seeing the district court’s summary-judgment decision, which pointed out that the Department’s submissions up to that point had created a misimpression about the nature of the decisional process. The Department did not move for reconsideration, instead seeking only a stay pending appeal. We cannot fault the district court for not giving the Department another chance when the Department never requested one.

And by my read, DOJ still (says it) disagrees with CREW and the judges about the predecisional advice was. In DOJ’s briefing, it maintains the decision was ultimately about the sufficiency of evidence against Trump — which the Circuit calls a thought experiment — not about a PR stunt.

Perhaps whatever Steven Engel and Ed O’Callaghan had to say in the sealed part of the memo really is something DOJ will go to the mat to (or assume a Trump majority on SCOTUS will) hide. Perhaps that’ll incent DOJ to try again or go to Trump’s protectors at SCOTUS to keep this sealed.

But some of the other things DOJ did — such as not asking for reconsideration — may make this an uphill climb in any case.

In any case, the Circuit did — as ABJ did herself — sharply limit the application of this decision.
[…]
It only affects the consequences of providing bullshit excuses for trying to keep something secret.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/20/demands-for-sua-sponte-do-overs-and-billy-barrs-thought-experiment-about-trumps-criminality/

…long story short…if you variously claim that you rely on a memo to reach a decision that it turns out you requested, helped draft & ultimately sign off on after you’ve already submitted the homework you claim relied on it the degree to which it was made to measure for your specific purpose is less subtle than many would appear to insist on believing…so…if that should happen to be about something that was explicitly ruled out by the very thing you’re trying to spin on account of muller deciding to ride the fence of “there’s definitely more than enough grounds here (even allowing for all the shit they’re very clearly keeping from us) to justify charging the guy (among a good many others) but gee, I can’t really walk that walk on account of the OLC guidance that says it’s bad form to indict a sitting president…& that would leave me accusing “the president” of a crime without allowing him the courtesy of pressing charges he could directly defend himself against which would be bad form”…well, then barr et al really needed to pick a better pretext than claiming to have been deliberating about a foregone conclusion…which they…serially…failed to do

…but, really…that does not do justice (…pun unintended…but I’ll take it?) to the logical slapdown provided by the district court in this instance…ms wheeler is infinitely better at elucidating that sort of thing than I

A number of people have gotten impatient that the search of the former President’s golf resort has not yet yielded an indictment. “If you or I did what he did,” a common refrain goes, “we’d already be in prison.”
[…]
And it sounds like Trump won’t be charged anytime soon. At a hearing before Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart last week, the head of DOJ’s counterintelligence section, Jay Bratt, said the investigation is in its “early stages.” That may suggest that Trump or others are suspected of more than just storing classified information in insecure conditions and refusing to give it back. Perhaps the people entering and exiting the storage closet at Mar-a-Lago did something more than just hide stuff from DOJ. Or perhaps the obstruction investigation — which may be obstruction of this investigation or others — is more complex than we imagine (which isn’t hard, because most journalists are simply ignoring that suspected crime).

…whether about the nuts & bolts of how they go about that sort of thing, which she goes on to discuss…or the stuff nearer the end of that one

Trump is suspected not just of stealing classified documents, there are known documents that he was suspected of hoarding at his home — according to the WaPo, including documents about nuclear weapons.

So in addition to all the other reviews and an inventory that the FBI will make of what it seized, between FBI and NARA, they’re going to need to compare the seized documents with the existing catalog to see whether all the documents known to be missing were seized and whether the seized documents identify other missing documents.

If there are known documents that witnesses say had been at Mar-a-Lago but they weren’t found in the search … then things will get really interesting.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/21/next-steps-in-the-trump-stolen-documents-investigation/

…& sure…there are a lot of documents that had no business winding up in the hands of the people they did…so it can be hard to keep track

Files copied from voting systems were shared with Trump supporters, election deniers [WaPo]

…even when you…for want of a better term…narrow the scope

In total, the government has recovered more than 300 documents with classified markings from Mr. Trump since he left office, the people said: that first batch of documents returned in January, another set provided by Mr. Trump’s aides to the Justice Department in June and the material seized by the F.B.I. in the search this month.
[…]
And the extent to which such a large number of highly sensitive documents remained at Mar-a-Lago for months, even as the department sought the return of all material that should have been left in government custody when Mr. Trump left office, suggested to officials that the former president or his aides had been cavalier in handling it, not fully forthcoming with investigators, or both.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/politics/trump-mar-a-lago-documents.html

…or…just possibly…bury the lede

https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/18/rule-of-law-doj-obtained-trumps-privilege-waived-documents-in-may/

[…that last one is somewhat helpful in explaining how it might be that a fair bit of the unfortunate appearance of the white house &/or garland giving every appearance of sitting on their hands might be misleading on a number of levels & very possibly right & proper & maybe even a good thing from a legalistic perspective…her implication being…to be shamefully reductionist about it…that might be how it looks when the law wins…even if it makes it hard to tell things might be headed in that direction]

…I’d go on…not least because I’m morbidly fascinated by this stuff…but at least I might not be the only one who’s out of time at this point…& on the upside my places to be don’t include prison…hell, the people to see don’t even include judges…so in the grand scheme of things I guess things might be going better for me than they look…rather than the other way around…like some people we might mention?

[…tunes to follow just as soon as I can make my mind up & scare up a link or few]

[…possibly relevant…the band took its name from Unemployment Benefit form 40…just sayin’]