…I see no reason [DOT 5/11/20]

remember...remember the 5th of november...

…I know it’s not really observed in the US…but there’s a rhyme about today in some parts of the world…well, basically the UK but brits tend to take it with them when they go overseas so it’s not exactly exclusive at this point

Remember, remember!
The fifth of November,
The Gunpowder treason and plot;
I know of no reason
Why the Gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot!

…there’s a bunch more to it but mostly that’s as much as most folks bother with…so I’ll spare you the stuff about the pope choking on “a penn’orth of cheese” & the references to long dead kings of small & frequently damp islands…but this bit seems like it might be about right for the current efforts to make a bonfire of certain ballots

If you won’t give me one,
I’ll take two,
The better for me,
And the worse for you.

…sound familiar?

Republicans Claim Voter Fraud. How Would That Work?

Such a nefarious plot would require the foresight, many weeks or even months in advance, to know to focus the effort on Pennsylvania. The plotters might hedge their bets by targeting multiple states, but that just makes the effort more expensive, risky and difficult.

A conspiracy to fix the 2020 election in Pennsylvania would also need to muster tens of thousands of votes. In 2016, almost 6.2 million Pennsylvanians cast ballots for the presidency. Donald Trump won by 44,292 votes, 0.7 percent of the total.

Suppose the conspirators somehow knew this year that Pennsylvania would be tied but for their efforts. For the sake of argument, let’s say they decided to marshal 62,000 fraudulent votes, roughly 1 percent of the 2016 total and twice the 0.5 percent margin that sets off an automatic recount. (Even that seems to cut things a little close.)

How hard could it be to order up 62,000 illegal ballots?

The chance that 62,000 Biden supporters in Pennsylvania would spontaneously vote with a second, illegal ballot, either in person or by mail, is effectively zero. It’s hard to believe any voters would expose themselves to the risk of felony prosecution, fines and imprisonment, with no knowledge of whether anybody else was doing so too, in order to bring the Democrats one vote closer to victory in Pennsylvania. A fraud of the necessary size would have to be organized.

And how might that work?

…& that’s before we get into the inconsistencies of arguing that ballots that shouldn’t count in Pennsylvania are somehow different from the ones that they’re arguing (on the same day, no less) should absolutely count in Arizona

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/facebook-and-twitter-emergency-trump-false-victory-claims

…or what the fuck is up with the USPS blowing off court orders on polling day

…it’s not “breaking” anymore but it’s still an interesting thread for the morbidly curious

Naturally, President Trump wants to confuse you about where all of this is really headed. At 2:30 a.m. on Wednesday morning, when he appeared to be leading, he gave a deeply depraved speech declaring victory.

“This is a fraud on the American public,” Trump said. “We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.”

The “fraud” in question is the counting of your votes. Trump also vowed to take his effort to stop this counting to the Supreme Court. He didn’t say what his argument would be, but that’s exactly the point: Trump has already revealed that in his disturbed mind, the court’s role is simply to stop the vote counting. No rationale is needed. It’s what he appointed Justice Amy Coney Barrett to do. Enough said.

But let’s not forget that something else helped make this all possible: Republicans in Rust Belt states worked to prevent the count of mail ballots (enormous numbers of which we knew would arrive well in advance of Election Day) from commencing until that day.
[…]
Amid pandemic conditions, we have known for months that the crush of mail balloting would be immense, and that if counting were allowed earlier, there would be no need for the count to drag on for days afterward. Note that in Florida, we got the results promptly.

It’s important to stress that this is a feature of why Republicans oppose counting ballots before Election Day: Creating the delayed count is the whole point, because it’s supposed to help cast an aura of illegitimacy on the votes counted in the days after.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/biden-edges-ahead-trump-effort-stop-your-vote-counting-gets-worse

It was a spectacle that spoke volumes about the man, and about the nation at this singularly damaged and dangerous moment in its 244-year history. An incumbent president declares victory even though he hasn’t won, then claims that fraud is being committed on the American public in the middle of an election that has seen the largest turnout of any presidential race in 120 years.

Democracy in Trumpland.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/trump-democracy-president-victory-fantasy-democrats
President Trump promised early Wednesday morning to ask the Supreme Court to intervene in the election. “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court,” he said. “We want all voting to stop.”
The first statement was premature. The second did not make sense.

The problem of Trump’s unfiltered reach coupled with his blatant lying is compounded by social media executives’ inadequate handling of the situation. Facebook and its irresponsible CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, refused to directly challenge the president, even while receiving credit from some observers for reminding voters that “final results” may take days, refused to directly challenge the president. They did not call Trump’s statement a lie or take strong steps to counter it. Twitter went far enough to say that the president’s message might be “misleading”, but it too failed to take a strong and definitive stand on a statement that is not just possibly, but indisputably, incorrect.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/american-democracy-election-threat-trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-supreme-court-election-votes/2020/11/04/story.html

…& here’s the thing

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/last-four-years-were-a-test-america-failed

…because even if it turns out that the vote aginst the fake-tanned, fake-tycoon sociopathic shitweasel that’s been squatting in the White House these last four years really was ultimately cast in numbers too big to manipulate

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-high-stakes-swing-state-legal-blitz-where-does-campaign-say-it-s-suing-and-why

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/trump-election-lawsuit-uncounted-votes

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-s-supreme-court-election-ploy-unlikely-change-2020-s-results

…plenty of other shit that counts was apparently manipulated just fine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/04/election-results-misinformation

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/not-done-why-social-media-s-biggest-election-test-ahead

…to the detriment of all

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/international-observers-us-election-trump-trust

We find ourselves in this desperate situation because Trump set out, from Day One of his presidency, with the intention of transferring ownership of America’s government from the people to himself.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/whether-he-goes-or-stays-trump-has-done-damage-that-cant-be-forgiven

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/voter-intimidation-lawsuit-filed-after-police-use-pepper-spray-north-carolina

…except maybe fucking mitch mcconnell’s bitch ass since he looks to be looking at another four years of obstruct-o-rama in his own pet senatorial playground

Republicans Tighten Hold on Senate, but Control Could Be Decided in Runoffs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/04/house-democrats-losses-crystallize-disappointing-down-ballot-election-so-far-party

After an election that failed to deliver the powerful gains that Democrats had hoped for, results from statehouses painted a similar picture, with the lowest number of chambers changing hands in more than half a century.

…because the GOP faithful (it turns out) would literally elect a fucking dead guy…& not the walking kind, either

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/04/covid-candidate-north-dakota-election

Don’t Fool Yourself. Trump Is Not an Aberration.

…so

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/surprise-the-election-is-unfolding-as-predicted/2020/11/04/story.html

…aside from praying Biden makes it over that electoral line in the sand – (which either seems to make no difference or to be working depending on where you stand on the whole “before god” businesss)

Explore Trump and Biden’s Paths to Victory
[…short version…out of 32 permutations of who wins what out of what’s left only one ends in a tie, while a mere 8 outcomes actually favor Dolt45…& fully 27 swing it for Biden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/04/trump-campaigns-path-victory-runs-through-two-states-hes-poised-lose

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/graphic-see-which-counties-remaining-battleground-states-have-most-votes

…maybe it might be time to draw a few new lines in that sand

Now that the ballots have been cast and we wait to see whose will be counted and whose will be ignored, can we please take a moment to acknowledge what a huge mess this whole thing has been?

…so although when it comes to the headline stuff it is no exaggeration to say that the world is watching…& mostly wondering what. the. actual. fuck?

A Transfixed World Awaits What’s Next in America

…by & large they didn’t have time to sweat the small stuff…like why the fuck Florida voted for a $15/hr minimum wage but against the guy who made that part of his platfrom so they could give up their electoral tally to the serial tax fraudster & multiply-bankrupt parasite prematurely proclaiming his own second coming on account of there being apparently such a shortage of dictionaries that damn near nobody in the entire state even knows what the terms socialism fucking means let alone notice when they’re getting played like a cheap fiddle

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/04/florida-was-always-cynical-goal-behind-trumps-disastrous-latin-america-policies

…still…clouds/silver linings…forests/trees…yadda yadda?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/us-drug-laws-decriminalization-voters-us-elections

…must be a lot of bob dylan fans out there, I guess

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25 Comments

  1. It’s sooooo close in GA right now for Biden and getting Perdouche  under 50% so Ossoff can live to fight another day. I don’t know official #’s at this point. 
    Regardless of how it turns out, Stacy Abrams brought the A game.

  2. This is kind of a proposal of nothing but:
     
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results
     
    In a nutshell, they want Hakeem Jeffries, who I did not know was a centrist and a Pelosi “lieutenant”, to challenger her for the Speakership. This came as a surprise to me because when he ran (and won) for the NY State Assembly he was an insurgent and bumped off an old hack who’d been in the Assembly for 26 years. To get back at him the Dem establishment, in the redistricting process, redrew the boundaries and conveniently didn’t include his residence within them. You would think that Hakeem Jeffries, who saw Democratic Establishment hackery up close and personal, would have…I guess I’d make a terrible politician.

    • Jeffries is tangled up in a lot of the scummier Cuomo institutions in NY State and City politics, and there is a lot of suspicion among the emerging progressive base about where he stands. There is a looming fight in the party between top down, consultant based leaders and people who want a grassroots based system, and Jeffries tends to lean toward the big funders.
       
      He was a hatchet man for Pelosi against AOC when she was pushing for a broader attack on Trump last year, with a lot of leaks attributabed to his office. Very possibly that was NYC/state stuff rearing its head, possibly his ambitions playing a role.
       
      But maybe the biggest problem with Jeffries is that he just not very good at policy. His appearances at hearings are usually unfocused and disconnected. The Democrats need someone as Speaker, as clearly demonstrated by Pelosi, who can understand and deliver messages. They need a grand strategist. I fear that Jeffries is a guy who makes people who see themselves as backroom dealers feel comfortable.

      • …it seems like the last thing anyone needs is to replace Pelosi with someone who’s less good at the role…but on the other hand I find it hard not to think that it might be good to see someone else take those reins?

  3. Here’s another take on the FL vote, which I thought was really interesting, and definitely made some valid (imo) points-


    (It was also retweeted be Jamele Hill, amongst others)

    • Eta, Facebook is a damn scourge and a motherfucking cancer on the public soul, it NEEDS to be broken up for anti-trust & monopoly reasons (as frankly, do Google, probably Twitter, and others!)
      And Zuck is nothing more than a rich misogynistic asshat.
      NEVER forget the *original* purpose of Facebook, as a rating site for hotness, OR their original motto of “Move fast and break things”🙄😒🤬
       
      Thinking that they CARE about democracy or the greater public good is ALWAYS a mistake. Those little asshats simply want money & power, and to be able to quantify & sell the public’s info, in any way/shape possible.

      • The House needs to completely fix its approach to Facebook. They’ve held these occasional one-day show hearings where they dither and dally and finally get Zuckerberg to appear, where he then sidesteps whatever random potshots get thrown at him, and that’s it.
         
        What they need to do is see Facebook for the beast it is, and hold weeks of hearings. They need to bring in the right wing GOP Facebook employees who have opened the floodgates for the Nazis, they need to bring in the victims of Facebook both domestically and abroad, and then they need to dare Zuck to duck them after they have made the case.
         
        These one day soundbite hearings don’t work, and it’s time for the House leadership to start using the power that they have given up.

        • I agree that the approach to Facebook needs to change, and I’m fine with your proposal. But the genie is out of the bottle, and it’s not going back. So the other thing that needs to change is how we as a country approach social media on a political basis. 
           
          It’s past time to tackle the beast head-on and create a team/department/organization that does nothing but combat bad information on social media. It should identify and guard against bad actors foreign and domestic and have the power regulate social media and to label fraudulent posts as fraudulent. Or, better yet, force the platforms to do it and fine them every time anything slips through. Something like the FCC for social media.
           
          Then open up both the platforms and the posters to libel suits. Sorry, Twitter, you’ve got a subpoena. Both you and SexxxxxyGOD329075 have to appear in court on charges of libel. Yep, you’ll have to disclose the poster’s identity, and both of you will be paying for what he posted. Oh, he broke some laws? Well, call your lawyers. You’re both on the hook.
           
          You want to be considered a “news” platform? Okay, you get to play by the same rules as legitimate news outlets, and your posters are now your reporters. You’re responsible for their shit-posting. Good luck. 

      • I know the various thread-bots DEFINITELY make things easier to read, but i also follow LOTS of journalists, and in case many of y’all don’t know about what happens nowadays with the thread-apps, this is a pretty common sentiment among the folks who don’t work at major publications💖;
         


         

        (That’s why I always just try to catch & link the first tweet in a thread😉)

  4. I’ve basically been struggling with the realization that a good half of Americans are utterly horrible people. I’m completely dismayed and horrified that people looked at Donald fucking Trump and said, “Four more years.” I really thought most people were better than that. Damn, I was wrong. Wrong like a 2020 political poll. Seriously wrong. 
     
    I found this article by Fred Kaplan on Slate. His thesis:
    “During the campaign, Biden and many of his surrogates, including former President Barack Obama, one of the most popular men in public life, would recount a few of Trump’s inadequacies and say, “This isn’t who we are.” Well, maybe in fact, it is.”
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/trumpism-election-results-america.html
     
    Trump abandoned basic decency and half of America gleefully did the same. I’m just not even sure how to process this. I used to watch The Walking Dead. I thought, this is stupid. Every remaining human on the show is a vicious monster, willing to sacrifice anyone else. People aren’t actually like that. They’d work together against a common enemy. They’d figure it out. I don’t like the nihilistic worldview a show like that represents. Apparently, a lot of other people do. 
     
    No matter how the rest of this election plays out, and God I hope Biden wins, we know now that at least half of us are bad people. Racist, greedy, evil, vicious, and stupendously, dangerously stupid. Half of us. 

    • …I have a theory about this but it’s shaky as hell & based more on the way that things shook out in the UK with the whole brexit catastrophe than the US because despite my best efforts I don’t think I’ve ever got as good a handle on the baseline mentality of people in the states when it comes down to the political bottom line

      …it goes something like this, anyway…if it really were the case that approximately half the population were irredeemable assholes out to fuck over everyone they think isn’t like them to the point that they’ll cheerfully fuck themselves over I’m pretty sure things would be worse than they are…but we can’t escape the fact that it’s people like that who seem to be the deciding factor because that’s the way things have broken repeatedly

      …so my suspicion is that it’s more like the majority fundamentally don’t engage at any meaningful level & think the choice is simply a matter of which “tribe” they predominantly identify with…they think everything else is window dressing & largely meaningless & that ultimately one party is better at one thing they care about more than anything else…so in the UK they think the Tories are better at the economic stuff & labour more likely to give a fuck about things like the NHS or providing public services…much like the GOP is anti-abortion & the Dems to protect roe vs wade…they’re sometimes susceptible to a pitch based on one side shifting to adopt a position closer to the opposition (like when blair was in charge of labour) but basically they’re locked in

      …which means the parties concentrate on the fringe shit because that’s what puts them over the top despite it being off-putting to those sure-thing voters they’d be fucked without

      …in US terms I think something similar tracks…a lot of the GOP-faithful are voting despite the monstrous figurehead rather than because of anything he represents because they fear the collapse of the party as a bloc & fear the other side getting meaningful power to alter things in long-term senses because they think that’s the end of their world

      …to those people aligning with bigots & racists & hateful people isn’t what they think they’re doing…they think they’re bravely standing up for what they think their party stands for underneath it all

      …I’m not saying they’re right but if you compare them to the people who wanted a candidate that wasn’t biden but were still willing to vote for him despite him not offering anything they really wanted rather than to, say, the ones that still think bernie would beat trump both times I think you’d be closer to the mark

      …it’s not a very optimistic take to be honest since it presupposes that change at the ballot box level is much harder to achieve than we want to think…but it tracks pretty well with the fact that when more people turn out to vote overall the higher levels of participation result in less decisive margins of victory more often than not?

      • Yeah, I see what you’re saying. That the “majority” are just basically following along with the rest of their herd. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but is it probably true? Yeah. Yeah, it probably is. 
         
        And in the normal course of events, with a remotely normal president, you’re going to be okay. My biggest problem with that is Trump. I can’t see how any reasoning human being of any type could possibly think he’s remotely competent or deserves more time in office. I mean, you have to deliberately choose to ignore the thousands of lies, and … well, it would take all day to list his shittiness. I can see how someone could support GW Bush. And someone like me can hold his nose and wait him out. 
         
        But Trump is truly a threat to life in this country and on this planet. I mean, let’s ask the quarter-million people who died from COVID. I just can’t accept that someone is so oblivious that they would take the time to vote but ignore Trump’s overwhelming and entirely obvious incompetence. And 68.6 million (and counting) people voted for him. Even if the majority are just stupid, that’s a LOT of fucking psychopaths. 

        • …totally agree with all of that…it’s why I didn’t think he had a shot the first time, even…he’s just so fucking obviously a shitty human being & a terrible & thoroughly unqualified candidate

          …so I guess my only explanation for this time around is that there’s more to the sunk costs fallacy than I ever imagined?

        • …it certainly seems to come off that way?

          …if you add in that some (particularly older) voters often seem to ignore the current state of affairs it makes for more of an untethered but staunchly affiliated choice than a reasoned decision involving any assessment of the pros & cons of the candidates or their actions

          …& since those who could (however amorally) actually reason their way to voting for the stuff offered by the trump-brand edition of the GOP are a negligible number of individuals in electoral terms (albeit a disproportionately wealthy bunch) it can’t be any regular kind of logic at work that’s accounting for the bulk of their electoral volume

          …so either it’s something along the lines I tried to sketch out…or people are actively shitty on a scale I’m not sure I can comprehend & the human race is unquestionably doomed

          …I’m not sure hoping it isn’t the latter really qualifies me as optimistic but I guess it’s the best I can do…& I’m trying to find reasons not to give in to despair at the way this stuff looks…even if all I seem to wind up with is basically a diet version of despair?

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