…this continues to be just…worse than it seems like there’s anything that says it has to be

Netanyahu rejects ‘surrender’ to hostage deal pressure [FT]

…despite the part where all manner of people from the ones on the streets to the government don’t share bibi’s belief that what keeps him where he is & what’s best for israel are one & the same

In a combative press conference, the Israeli prime minister presented control of the Philadelphi corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt as a primary war aim, entrenching a position that has emerged as a key obstacle to a ceasefire deal.
[…]
“In the war against the axis of evil, in this specific war against Hamas and also in the north, we have set four goals: defeat Hamas; return our hostages; ensure that Gaza does not pose a threat; and to return residents to the south,” he said. “Three of these goals pass through the Philadelphi route, Hamas’s oxygen pipe.”

The Israeli opposition leader, Yair Lapid, derided Netanyahu’s presentation as “political spin” with “no relation to reality”.

“Not one professional buys this spin. Not the security personnel, not the international system, not the fighters who are actually in Gaza and know the reality there,” Lapid said, according to the Times of Israel.

The Philadelphi corridor has only emerged as an Israeli government talking point in recent weeks, and was not part of the plan that Biden presented in May, which the Israeli government said at the time it accepted.
[…]
The Hostage Families Forum vowed that their protests would continue, but the far-right members of Netanyahu’s government coalition declared victory after a labour court ruling that the strike had to end at 2.30pm local time (12.30pm BST).

Even before the court ruling, the strike, called by the Histadrut trade union federation, was not seen as a significant threat to the government. It had only been due to last a day, and only a few local authorities took part.
[…]
Other countries have slightly increased pressure on Israel since the botched rescue of the hostages. The UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, on Monday announced the suspension of 30 of 350 arms export licenses to Israel. Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said he was “deeply disheartened” by the decision at a time when “we fight a war on seven different fronts”.

The extreme right members of Netanyahu’s coalition welcomed the decision of the Bat Yam labour court to order Monday’s strike to end early. The finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said the strike had been “political and illegal”, serving the interests of Hamas.

The Hostage Families Forum said that protests would still continue after the strike, in the interests of the 101 hostages still unaccounted for in Gaza, of whom Israeli intelligence believes about a third are already dead.
[…]
About 100,000 protesters took part in demonstrations in Tel Aviv on Sunday night, temporarily blocking the north-south motorway that runs through the city. On Monday, there were sporadic protests blocking key road junctions around the country and another big demonstration was called for Monday night.

Among even the most determined demonstrators however was an acceptance that they did not yet have the strength to threaten Netanyahu’s hold on power and force him to change course.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/biden-says-netanyahu-not-doing-enough-to-secure-ceasefire-with-hamas

…& I don’t claim to have the answers…or even really to understand what the UK’s gesture towards acknowledging that presently israel can’t be trusted not to use supplied arms in contravention of international law in repect of those quaint things we call “basic human rights” means in terms of the value of its token…let alone what the deal is with the west bank…but…”political considerations” is really making a determined bid for the euphemism with the most to answer for

The Tel Aviv labour court ordered an end to the strike on Monday, ruling that it was politically motivated and had not been called for economic reasons.

The chair of Histadrut, Arnon Bar-David, said in a statement before the strike: “I have come to the conclusion that only our intervention can shake those who need to be shaken.

“A deal is not progressing due to political considerations and this is unacceptable.”
[…]
The Histadrut union has not taken such drastic action since March 2023, over Netanyahu’s controversial judicial overhaul plans.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/israel-gaza-war-national-strike-hostages-ceasefire-netanyahu

…I mean…when you hear about people in israel who think there ought to be elections because the government is not representative of the people…it seems easy enough to believe…but…when it’s those assholes in the AfD saying it about germany…eh…not so much?

Although the political earthquake from the elections in eastern Germany had been long foreseen, the centrist governing parties proved incapable of stopping the rise of the AfD, which came first in Thuringia state with nearly 33% of the vote and a close second in Saxony with almost 31%.

The three parties in the chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular government each scored in the single-digit percentage points in a stinging rebuke from voters, leaving another of the EU’s main powers, along with France, politically chastened and hamstrung.
[…]
The AfD chapters in Saxony and Thuringia have been designated as “rightwing extremist” by the security authorities. Sunday’s result in Thuringia marked the first time since the Nazi period that a far-right party has claimed the top spot in a state election, raising questions about how long the democratic parties can keep it out of power by refusing any cooperation.

…not that the so-called left is covering itself in glory, either

The night’s other big winner was the new leftwing-conservative populist party the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), named after its founder who broke off from the far-left Linke party last year, leaving it in tatters.

The BSW, which calls for higher taxes on top earners, curbs on immigration and an end to military assistance for Ukraine, scored nearly 16% in Thuringia and almost 12% in Saxony.

…turns out just knocking down the wall maybe didn’t make east meet west so everyone lived happily ever after

The AfD has stunned Germany – but this was no surprise victory [Guardian]

…more’s the pity

The AfD’s top candidate in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, who has repeatedly used Nazi rhetoric at his rallies and called into question Germany’s atonement for the Holocaust, also cried foul. “If you want stability in Thuringia, you have to integrate the AfD,” he said. “Any constellation in which the AfD is not included won’t do this state any good.”

…so that guy’s out there telling anyone that’ll listen things about olaf that sound pretty reasonable when people say them about bibi…even though those two things don’t sound similar in just about any other way I can think of…still…some words are undoubtedly chosen carefully

The existing nuclear doctrine, set out in a decree by President Vladimir Putin in 2020, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state. Some hawks among Russia’s military analysts have urged Putin to lower the threshold for nuclear use in order to “sober up” Russia’s enemies in the west. Ryabkov’s comments on Sunday were the clearest statement yet that changes would indeed be made. “The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear intent to make corrections,” state news agency Tass cited Ryabkov as saying. The decision was “connected with the escalation course of our western adversaries” in connection with the Ukraine conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-says-it-will-change-nuclear-doctrine-due-to-western-escalation-in-ukraine

…it…makes my head hurt, quite honestly…to say nothing of the heart or the soul…the sheer reserves of unmitigated gall it has to take to refer to the country you invaded…again…having already annexed some of its territory…& whose population you have been subjecting to the worst your military can inflict for upwards of a couple of years…as “provoking” you by having the temerity to return the incursion favor…that is some feat of cognitive dissonance even if you don’t believe a word of what comes out of your mouth…but…apparently…to paraphrase abe simpson…that’s the fashion of our time?

In a Fox News interview that aired Sunday, Trump went on a long screed about the Justice Department and its treatment of him, charging he had been targeted. Trump marveled that the criminal charges did nothing but boost his poll numbers, because, he surmised, his supporters didn’t buy them in the first place.

“Whoever heard you get indicted for interfering with a presidential election where you have every right to do it, you get indicted, and your poll numbers go up?” Trump said. “When people get indicted, your poll numbers go down. But it was such, such nonsense.”

Harris’ campaign called the former president’s remarks to Fox News evidence that he thought he was above the law.

…he had “every right” & indictments don’t count if your polling numbers don’t drop…uh huh

Elon Musk has used his large platform on X to promote a theory that a free-thinking “Republic” could only exist under the decision-making of “high status males” – and women or “low T men” would not be welcome in it.

On Sunday, Musk re-posted a screenshot of the theory – which appears to have been conceived on 4chan in 2021– on the social media site.

The theory, written by an anonymous user, suggests that the only people able to think freely are “high [testostrone] alpha males” and “aneurotypical people”, and that these “high status males” should run a “Republic” that is “only for those who are free to think.”

The theory suggests that the only people able to think freely are ‘high [testostrone] alpha males’ and ‘aneurotypical people’ [Independent]

…deep breath…wait for the encroaching darkness to recede from your vision & your head to stop spinning…maybe…I dunno…elevate your feet…or…traditionally hot tea with a bunch of sugar in it is often applied to help people get over stuff like shock…whatever works, I guess…we’re a long-ass way from plato & the philospher kings that were to be to politics as groucho marx was to clubs who wanted him to be a member…still…for a guy that’s been dead that long he sure does make a persuasive case that the people who want that kind of gig seem on the whole to be chock full of traits you wouldn’t want in anyone with power over others…who was it who said “anyone capable of getting themselves elected president should on no account be allowed to hold office”?

…maybe that’s not verbatim but I’m pretty sure I want to say douglas adams…who…now I think about it…might have made a pretty good philosopher king…anyway…why am I…yet again…banging on about elon bloody musk when there’s any number of things I could be talking about instead?

…like…I dunno…the unsung hero that gave us zero

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/hidden-story-ancient-india-west-maths-astronomy-historians

…without which…arguably…we wouldn’t have the pre-or-post-socratic tradition…& I wouldn’t be wondering how it came to be that feats of aryabhata were attributed to the omar khayyam that wrote that rubaiyat the way the thing was told to me as a kid…although I’m guessing it would have been somewhere around that intercalation business since that sort of thing would be amenable to looking pretty close to accurate once we got good enough at math to try to check it…& then even more accurate once we figured out to take blue shift into account when doing math about celestial bodies at a few millenias’ remove…& it’s easy enough to get mixed up with that business about the length of the solar year…either way…gotta agree it has a lot going for it that shit about a shithead nobody ought to be paying attention to sure as shit don’t

…or…I dunno…your genuine click-bait

https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/sep/02/the-big-idea-why-were-getting-the-immigration-debate-all-wrong [Guardian]

…but…how did the man in black put it?

…I mean…sure…we get this far

But the terms of this debate are wrong. The option to dramatically reduce or cut off immigration is an illusion. People are going to come here from overseas whatever we do, and what’s more, we need them to. No, the real choice is between a chaotic, punitive system based on political dishonesty, and a well-managed one that works, taking advantage of our good fortune in being a place that can draw people from around the world.

…but…are we going to talk about the relative permeability of the barrier presented by borders to nations…or…at some point…why osmosis makes a surprisingly good anaology for the movements of migrant populations…& how that & the industrial impacts of the industrialized world, uh, impact the world…& have been…since I-dunno-how-many-revolutions-ago…probably nah, as it goes

This tells us that there are other forces than mere policy at work here – and they’re economic and demographic. The native-born labour force is already shrinking in almost all advanced economies; in the UK, essentially all the growth in employment over the last two decades – more than 4 million people – is accounted for by those born abroad. With fertility rates far below replacement level and the number of Britons over 65 set to increase by 5 million over the next 20 years, these pressures will only intensify. Without immigration, the numbers of people paying tax will shrink just as the numbers needing state support in later life are growing. It’s not a sustainable mix.

…maybe not…but…you wouldn’t think “if we threw out all the illegal immigrants you’d be able to afford the rent & maybe even buy a place of your own just like that” was a sustainable claim for a presidential candidate to cosplay as a policy position that responds to the folks finding doing either of those things beyond them even when they have more jobs than thumbs…none of which they have lodged anywhere near that far up their ass

Theoretically, you could manage a shrinking workforce and a growing elderly population with very low levels of immigration. That would involve steadily automating more jobs, or simply accepting economic stagnation. But this seems pretty hard to imagine, as the examples of Japan and Korea suggest. Despite historically low migration and relatively “closed” cultures reinforced by language barriers, immigration to both countries has risen rapidly in recent years, driven by labour market pressures. Rather than resisting, both are now trying to attract migrants for both manual and skilled jobs – their prosperity and wellbeing depend on it.

So, levels of migration that are high by historical standards seem inevitable. This doesn’t mean politics and policy are irrelevant, though; on the contrary, they can make things much better or much worse. Broadly speaking, there are three options on the table.

…& that’s being charitable…& not including “keep talking about it without really meaning migration because it’s the all-time best value dog whistle going in this or any other possible world”…so…three might be on the low end…or hopelessly over-optimistic…depending on your perspective?

Our current hodgepodge of migration policies and processes – it could hardly be called a strategy – has elements of both of these approaches. The previous government oversaw a regime of performative cruelty towards asylum seekers, an expansion of temporary worker schemes for agriculture, and increasingly onerous requirements for family visas and those who want to settle here permanently.

Yet we still have a relatively transparent and liberal work visa scheme, and the graduate visa for international students remains in place – although some of the political rhetoric of the last few years, coupled with the events of the last few weeks, have made it harder to attract those who can choose where they want to go.

…uh huh

But this would mean being honest about the fact that migration will continue at relatively high levels because we don’t, when it comes down to it, want either mass automation or stagnation. It should, therefore, be legal and regulated. But we also need a conversation about social consequences that isn’t rooted in an illusory “we can just stop them coming” option.

…chance’d be a fine thing

Thankfully, we are not, despite the scaremongering, a society irredeemably divided on ethnic, racial or religious lines. But running a successful multi-ethnic democracy in an era of continued high migration will not happen automatically, particularly given the political figures – seen out in force during the riots – willing it to fail. That means taking integration seriously again. To make a start, we should restore funding for English classes for new arrivals, move recognised refugees out of isolation in hotels and into homes and jobs as soon as possible, and reverse proposed changes to allow faith schools to select entirely on religious grounds. A system that works both for longstanding residents and new migrants, both as workers and people, is possible: now let’s debate that.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/sep/02/the-big-idea-why-were-getting-the-immigration-debate-all-wrong

…for starters…only…we have a lot of not-doing-that left in the tank, apparently…bit like all those fossil fuel reserves that aren’t stopping cries of “drill, baby, drill…” echoing in some legislative chambers…none of this shit works the way you’d think it did if it “made sense”…but…we keep making sense of it all anyway…because what else can you do, right?

Fama is arguably the world’s most famous and influential finance professor, thanks to his revolutionary efficient market hypothesis — that stock market prices at any time incorporate all available information, thanks to the cumulative and unending efforts of millions of investors constantly trying to outfox it. The paradox is that as a result of their efforts, the stock market is in practice almost impossible to beat. 

In other words, perhaps you are excited by the potential of some hot new electric vehicle stock or reckon that an old video-games retailer is due for a turnaround, and maybe you’re right. After all, all stock prices are wrong in hindsight. But at any given moment in time, the prices of those stocks are roughly fair, given all the known risks and returns are already baked in. 

…so the theory goes

EMH is the closest finance has to a “theory of everything”, and won Fama the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2013. But it remains as controversial today as it did when Fama first proposed it half a century ago.

…don’t overthink it?

“I think [markets] are probably less efficient than I thought 25 years ago,” Clifford Asness, a hedge fund manager and a former research assistant to Fama, admitted to the FT in an interview last year. “And they’ve probably gotten less efficient over my career.”  

Fama himself shrugs off the apparent apostasy of his former student. “He’s trying to take advantage of different risks, and maybe he interprets that as inefficiency,” the finance professor says. “But remember, he’s now on the other side of the fence. He’s selling products, right?”

Economist Eugene Fama: ‘Efficient markets is a hypothesis. It’s not reality’ [FT – or archive.ph]

…caveat emptor…or…who’s buying this shit?

Behind closed doors, former president Donald Trump and his advisers have been talking for months about forming a commission led by prominent business executives to comb through the government books to identify thousands of programs to cut.

Lately, one particularly famous candidate has made clear he’d be up for it: Elon Musk. And he may have much to gain personally from the endeavor.

On several occasions, including on X, the social media platform he owns, the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive has expressed interest in being part of a “government efficiency commission” aimed at eliminating wasteful regulations and spending. Musk in August posted an apparently artificial intelligence-generated image of himself behind a lectern labeled “Department of Government Efficiency,” with the acronym DOGE — a meme-based cryptocurrency Musk has previously embraced.
[…]
Trump last week downplayed the idea that Musk would join his Cabinet — but also said Musk might be a helpful consultant to the federal government.

“He wants to be involved, but look, he’s running big businesses and all that … so he can’t really” be in the Cabinet, Trump said on the Shawn Ryan Show. “He can sort of, as the expression goes, consult with the country and give you some very good ideas.”

Trump eyes plan that may give Elon Musk role in auditing U.S. agencies [WaPo]

…as if the guy would know a good idea if it jumped down his throat & choked him to death…but…it’s not really his twitter bullshit that makes me feel like musk is right up there on the wannabe bond villain call sheet with all the kleptocratic fuckers from places where we don’t console ourselves with the belief that the criminal & political spheres are distinct

The ownership of X has handed Musk a massive megaphone to broadcast his views. But focusing on his social media platform obscures the real extent and source of his geopolitical power.

It is the control of SpaceX, Starlink and Tesla that have given Musk a central role in the war in Ukraine and in the growing rivalry between the US and China; as well as a walk-on part in the war in Gaza.

In these conflicts, Musk’s role is more ambiguous than in the west’s culture wars. His unpredictable interventions — combined with immense technological and financial power — make him an unguided geopolitical missile, whose whims can reshape world affairs.

…put it this way

Where Musk and the US government have really parted company is over China. The opening of a massive Tesla factory in Shanghai in 2019 is seen in Washington as a major setback for the American goal of staying ahead of China in the key technologies of the future. China is now the world’s leading producer of electric vehicles and US officials believe that Chinese manufacturers have learnt from — and sometimes stolen from — Tesla.

The Biden administration is trying to persuade America’s leading tech companies to diversify away from China and was encouraged when Musk scheduled a visit to India earlier this year, with a view to opening a Tesla plant there. But, at the last minute, Musk cancelled and turned up in Beijing instead. In China, he announced an intensification of Tesla’s relationship with the country. The Shanghai factory now produces more than half the Teslas manufactured globally.

American officials note that Musk’s championship of free speech — and willingness to insult world leaders — does not extend to China. X has long been banned in China but Musk is scrupulously respectful towards Xi Jinping, China’s dictatorial leader.

Another foreign leader who seems to have got Musk’s measure is Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. Musk has been accused of promoting antisemitic conspiracy theories on X. But it was his proposal to provide Starlink to aid organisations in Gaza that really alarmed the Israeli government — which claimed this would help Hamas. After a visit to Israel last year, Musk agreed that he would only operate Starlink in Gaza with Israeli approval.

The Biden administration is uneasy about many of Musk’s activities. But his companies have technological capabilities that even the US government lacks. To keep Ukraine connected, when Musk wavered, the Pentagon had to contract with Starlink. When Nasa wants to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station, it is SpaceX that makes it happen.

If Musk often talks and acts as if he is more powerful than any government it may be because, in certain respects, that is true.

…was it truly elon that made any of the shit any of those companies can do possible?

…fuck no…& yet…here we fucking are, aren’t we?

X is full of conspiracy theories — some of them promoted by Musk himself. For all his wealth and his undoubted brilliance as an engineer and entrepreneur, Musk will remain subject to the laws of the countries he operates in. That dawning realisation may account for his increasingly furious fulminations against Brazil, Britain, the EU and the state of California — and any one else who dares to stand in his way.

X is not the source of Musk’s power. But it could mark the spot where his power is limited.

Elon Musk is an unguided geopolitical missile [FT – or via archive.ph]

…you know how sometimes it’s fun to talk about how “if I ruled the world, then…” on account of the nice cathartic feeling you get from saying all sorts of stuff wouldn’t be allowed…or if you’re me you wind up musing about developing a new perspective on the church’s take on the templars when you think of elon’s ilk as trying to pull the same end-run on the concept of the nation state vis à vis relative economic & political power?

…well…if I’m honest…some days…it’s hard not to move on to imagining what you could do with a clan or two of mystical ninja…& I don’t mean the burger-delivery thing

…anyway…people to see…places to be…time waits for nobody…yadda yadda…if hopefully not before I cobble a few tunes together?