1. Welp
    Its turned into a shit show as expected
    Tho I was expecting trump to atleast wait till he lost to claim fraud….fat old fuck caught me off guard with the timing there

      • …pretty sure he did all that before breakfast?

        …I used to like that line from alice in wonderland about being able to believe seven impossible things before breakfast…but it isn’t feeling so whimsical today

  2. To kind of keep on-topic but to take our minds off the immediate present, I read something interesting that I’d like to recap.
    Picture it. It’s 1976. The Bicentennial Year! Pet rocks! Mood rings! Disco dancing until the wee hours. Incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford is running against Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter. Ford loses, but just barely, and wins every state west of the Mississippi, including California (which used to be a swing state) Oregon, and Washington. Texas, as usual, votes for the Democrat, especially this southern one. Illinois, Michigan, New England except for MA and RI, New Jersey, all Republican.
    Ford’s loss enrages the right-wing of the party, who spent the 70s agitating for lower taxes, smaller government, and against Roe v. Wade and the ERA, both of which Ford and especially his wife Betty supported. They coalesce around St. Ronald of Hollywood, who had primaried Ford and almost got the nomination himself in 1976, which would have been extraordinary. 
    The Carter years went as they did and he was in a really tough spot. He was conservative, which pissed off a lot of Democrats (Ted Kennedy went on to primary him in 1980, again, ran an internecine campaign against a president of his own party) but not nearly conservative enough for Republicans. 
    Through grassroots organizing and sheer force of will Reagan won the Republican nomination, won the election, and took the Republican Party and much of the nation many steps to the right. It’s where we still are today. If you look back at what Jerry Ford and much of what Richard Nixon did, they’d be considered moderate Democrats today.
    The article made two points. One, Reagan transformed the nation so thoroughly that former Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton could be smeared as a wild-eyed socialist, and the Democrats who won, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, especially Bill Clinton, were basically Rockefeller Republicans.
    But the other was that because there are only two parties, they have to squeeze in a lot of malcontents who might form a revolution from within and overthrow the Establishment. This happened to the Republicans in the 1970s and again in 2016. If Biden loses, following the Hillary Clinton loss, might this be enough to move the Democratic Party to the left? It was really a stunning insight. We’re seeing this in New York. At the national level on both sides the power players are getting older and older, but we’re picking them off here and there. Eliot Engel: what was so bad about him? Pretty liberal, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee…but he’s also 73 and entered the House in 1989. He lost his primary to Jamaal Bowman, a 44-year-old former middle school principal and a member of the Democratic Socialists. Engel was endorsed by Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo. No one cared. Bowman was enthusiastically endorsed by AOC. In his district the Republicans didn’t even field a candidate (the Conservatives did, to predictable results) so off to DC he heads.
    I just thought this was interesting. Happy Wednesday. May your post-election night hangover be mild. Oh, I’ll tell you one more thing. All young New Yorkers in the 80s seemed to know this: a surefire cure for an alcohol-induced hangover is two (not one, not three) slices of cheese pizza, the big foldable New York kind, accompanied by one can of regular Coke, not Diet, not Pepsi. I don’t why this works but it does. I should put this in Food You Can Eat.

    • The ancient Dem leadership — hoping to keep their jobs and their rich friends happy — remain a huge stumbling block.

      But the other thing that defines now that didn’t define then is the right-wing media machine. It’s far too early to make judgement calls about what *really* happened this election cycle. That said, the idea that Trump could do better this time out despite utterly botching the Covid-19 response … it’s dark, realllll fuckin’ dark. 

    • I wouldn’t bet on a full blown revolution within the Democratic Party.  The power players control too much money, and therefore won’t simply be cast aside by the rabble.  Like I’ve said before, the corporate Democrats don’t care how many elections they lose, as long as they get to keep their money.

      • There are a few things to watch out for. One is that Pelosi is gone after this term, which would be huge. There will be a big fight for her replacement, and progressives need to push for someone who can brwak with the past.
        Another is that Democrats raised huge amounts of money from small donors, and the people who can create and tap into these networks will be in a much better place than the ones who can squeeze ten x $2000 donations from Citigroup. Progressives need to build on this, but the opportunity is there for the taking.
        Finally, the Dems had their butts saved in WI and kept comfortable in MN by hardcore grassroots organizers in the state parties. The lesson is that they have to build on this even more, and the ones who favor small donors are the ones who get this. The power may shift if they can get the jump now on the organizing side. And the focus needs to be on the organizing side above the issues — the messaging needs to be Democrats can debate issues but they cannot dispute the mechanics of grassroots fundraising, communicating and organizing.

        • Nancy Pelosi isn’t going anywhere. She’ll be clinging to that gavel when they wheel her out in a stretcher. Plus she raises a TON of money that she freely distributes all over the House (on the Dem side, to people she likes/suck up to her.) Plus she’s only 80, far too young to retire by DC standards.
          If I were AOC I’d have an armed guard around me at all times. She knocked off Pelosi’s best bud, Joe Crowley, a machine hack in every sense of the word, and tipped to replace her, and Pelosi drips with contempt whenever she and the Squad are brought up. 
          Her pal Eliot Engel is now gone too but she grudgingly offered a welcome to his replacement, Jamaal Bowman, because once you’re worn a kente cloth and taken the knee in the Halls of Congress it wouldn’t be good optics to icily dismiss a Black man. 

          • I don’t see her backing out of the commitment she made last session to make this her last time in the chair, especially given the way the Dems lost seats. She may try to push through Hoyer or one of her stooges, but there is an opening for someone better if they play their cards right.
            The Dems spent the entire last two years following Pelosi’s strategy, and I think there is a lot of resentment at how it played out. They kept low profiles and avoided trying to define Trump in any serious way, and still lost. They see AOC able to actually do her job because she’s not locked up in a boilerroom calling big donors 30-50 hours a week, and at least some of them want to do that. We’ll see if they can pull it off.

  3. Hey! A DOT!

    Still think Biden is doing fine even in a slow count; NC right now is the only spot where it might be out of his grasp. But I really liked GA and still do. 

    We were warned this might be the case, and sure enough, here we are. But we might walk away at the end with Biden at 300+ EVs and +5-6% in the popular vote which is … sort of what we expected?


    • Agreeing with your take, Black Rod!
      Here’s someone from over in WI I’ve been following for a long time, and I trust his take;

      Eta, this makes me EXTREMELY happy, because it’s appearing–along with the WI *local* races, like my dear neighboring state miiiiight just have gotten her true soul back again, with this latest election.

      Fingers crossed, and dog-willing,** but WI might just have regained her soul💖💓💞💗

      **dog, because, well, Dogs really ARE the best of us, and they are much, MUCH kinder than the God that so many Christians nowadays purport to believe in💝

        • Yeah, which means that even if Biden wins and doesn’t get screwed by SCOTUS, there will be no more covid-related assistance, no economic stimulus plan of any kind, nothing.  McConnell will very happily watch this country burn for four more years just so he can give the Republicans all the ammunition they need to call Biden’s term a “failure”.

  4. While bourbon was my friend last evening, I thank goodness for strong coffee this morning. I continue to be shocked at the number of people in the US who purposefully vote for a man and a political party that seem to take pride in being the embodiment of hate, cruelty, xenophobia, misogynistic beliefs, and just plain mean-spiritedness. Get over it, right? But it just really sets me back… Hang in there, dear DeadSplinterites.

  5. Anyone else notice Florida? 3 % points? That’s a fucking landslide in a state that hasn’t been won by more than 1/10th of a % in over 20 years. It just doesn’t make sense.

  6. I went for a long walk and didn’t start following the news until after 10, then quit at 11:30 and went to bed. I slept terribly and was surprised at the mildly optimistic news. But it’s a long way from done. What a mess.

  7. I took Fanny for her morning walk, met a friend at the park for a second walk and a little play time. Now I’m home to obsessively check the returns.

  8. it seems fatboy is in trouble. remember if biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI he wins even if he loses PA, GA and NC.
    per  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
    AZ: B+3 @ 86%
    NV: B+0.6 @ 86%
    MI: B+1.1 @ 95%
    WI: B+0.6 @ 98%, AP/NBC called it for Biden
    so stopping the count isn’t enough, they’ll have to invalidate votes
    of course, as butcher said, if the turtle is majority shell again, things are fucked…

    • Nathaniel Rakich Nov. 4, 3:22 pm

      Nevada: Biden leads here by only 7,647 votes, and an estimated 14 percent of the vote is still uncounted. However, those votes will all be either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots, which should lean Democratic. We won’t be getting another update here until noon Eastern on Thursday.


      info about the other states at the link

      • …I saw something the biden campaign posted that indicated they were of the belief that Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada & Pennsylvania would ultimately fall in their favor

        …it didn’t mention Arizona but with the trump camapign simultaneously trying to argue in court filings that the count in some states should be halted & mail in ballots in Pennsylvania should be disqualified while the ones in Arizona should be honored is incoherent even by their standards?

    • so stopping the count isn’t enough, they’ll have to invalidate votes

      right on cue:

      Clare Malone Nov. 4, 4:23 pm

      As we head towards the sun setting on Day 2 of election week, we’re starting to see some more active efforts by Trump supporters to signal their anger at the legitimate counting of ballots. There are a couple of videos of protesters in Detroit floating around. In one, you can hear Trump’s supporters chanting “stop the vote.” That is some kind of rhetoric for an election in a democracy.

      • …& again, they’re all in on a completely invalid interpretation of what’s happening…there’s not an ongoing vote to stop…the ballots are cast…it’s the counting they’re supposed to be trying to stop but they don’t seem to have grasped how any of this works…they’re just parroting some shit they’ve been fed & don’t understand

        …if it wasn’t so fucking tragic it’d very nearly be funny

        • even on bush vs. gore it was the recount that the sc stopped on 12/2. it’s a huge leap from stopping the count on 11/4. if you do that you instantly become a certified banana republic…

          …if it wasn’t so fucking tragic it’d very nearly be funny


          • …what I find particularly galling is how flagrantly they telegraphed their whole strategy…it wasn’t enough to engage in insane amounts of outright voter suppression…or try to incite his faithful to outright intimidate voters (I gather one guy got arrested for loitering outside a polling station while armed but thankfully that seems to have been more talk than walk as far as I can make out)…or stack social media (& the regular media) with all manner of disinformation & scaremongering about the spectre of “socialism” (which seems to have made all the difference in florida, sadly)

            …no…they had to come right out & say in advance that “the result should be decided on the day” when it was clear that in a bunch of places it was going to take longer than that to count all the ballots because they wouldn’t let them get caught up on the advance ones until after they were done with the polling day ones…it was bullshit then…it was doubly bullshit when he claimed to have won in the small hours of the morning…& once they started talking about how actually counting legally submitted ballots constituted a disgraceful fraud the levels of projection rolling around were well beyond “I’ve had it up to here with this shit”

            …it beggars belief that there are people prepared to stand there & shill for a position so entirely & obviously billlshit from the ground up but apparently it’s not just suckers that are born every minute

              • …truth be told…& in a manner of speaking it’s the only way to claim he’s told any truths since he put himself forward as a candidate…he’s only talking to the self-selected sycophants who are prepared to swallow that kind of bullshit

                …so for them since-he-said-that-shit is indistinguishable from since-forever-even-if-it’s-actually-never

                …& while I personally think a large portion of the blame for that lies with generations of GOP preperations & prevarications…the truth is that there are (sad to say) literally millions of people out there who went ahead & voted for the let’s-fuck-everybody-over party because they’d rather believe that was in their own selfish interests than confront the fact that they’ve let others lie to them so much for so long that they can’t can’t even tell that they’re lying to themselves anymore…assuming they ever could

    • but even if the Turtle is in charge, if we can manage to end up with an AG Bharara, AG Castro, or AG–other person of THAT caliber, there’s allllllways the chance of finding out *exactly* what secrets Moscowmitchmctreason’s been selling & to whom, AND/or exactly what’s been going on with his cabinet-secretary wife’s “family companies” that ‘ol Mitchy-poo’s been treasoning in, annnnnnd then tossing his ass in jail permanently😈
      Because we all KNOW he’s in deep *somewhere,* it just needs to be learned where.😉

  9. Nathaniel Rakich Nov. 4, 9:29 pm

    As Aaron mentioned, we just got a batch of about 74,000 Maricopa County votes that split 59-41 for Trump. This narrowed Biden’s statewide lead to about 79,000 votes. To close that gap, with about 418,000 ballots left to count statewide, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots … 59-41. One silver lining for Biden, though: A fair number of those remaining 418,000 ballots are in Pima County, which is bluer then Maricopa.


  10. Nate Silver Nov. 4, 9:55 pm

    Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona — at least in my view — projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.


  11. Biden’s lead narrows in Arizona, but Trump still faces an uphill battle.

    PHOENIX — The latest update from Arizona’s most populous county shows Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s lead over President Trump further narrowing in the battleground state.

    As of early Thursday, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump in Maricopa County by 74,514 votes, almost 11,000 fewer than the previous update on Wednesday night. About 5 percent of the total vote remains to be counted there. Statewide, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by less than three percentage points.

    Maricopa County’s next update will come after 9 p.m. Eastern on Thursday.

    In the two batches of results released by the county late Wednesday and early Thursday, totaling almost 140,000 ballots, Mr. Trump’s share of the vote was almost 60 percent, which experts have said is about what he needs to win the state and its 11 electoral votes. But Mr. Trump would also have to receive the same proportion of votes that remain to be counted in other parts of the state as well, including counties that tend to vote Democratic. …


  12. Biden closes in on Trump in Georgia, where the counting of votes continues.

    ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.  

    Mr. Biden had begun Wednesday morning approximately 100,000 votes behind Mr. Trump, but as county elections workers around the state continued the laborious tabulation of absentee ballots into Thursday morning, Mr. Trump’s lead narrowed to 24,000 votes, or 0.5 percent. Under Georgia election law, a candidate may request a recount if the margin is 0.5 or less.

    In Fulton County, a Democratic stronghold and home to most of Atlanta, Mr. Biden narrowed the margin by more than 18,000 votes between 5 p.m. and midnight as the work of processing and tabulating the votes continued. In DeKalb County, also part of the metropolitan region, Mr. Biden narrowed it by an additional 5,000. The next update from Georgia’s secretary of state is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. on Thursday.

    Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, said that as of 10:15 p.m. on Wednesday, there were about 90,735 ballots that still needed to be counted. More than a third of them are in Fulton and DeKalb counties.

    If the trajectory of Mr. Biden’s gains continued, it appeared he could overtake Mr. Trump in Georgia by the final tally on Thursday.  The question was whether additional absentee votes from rural and more Republican areas would offset enough of Mr. Biden’s gains to preserve Mr. Trump’s lead. …


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