…some clever greek guy a long time ago suggested true wisdom involved knowing how little we know…&…well…it’s a big old universe

The observations by the Dark Energy Survey and the South Pole Telescope chart the distribution of matter with the aim of understanding the competing forces that shaped the evolution of the universe and govern its ultimate fate. The extraordinarily detailed analysis adds to a body of evidence that suggests there may be a crucial component missing from the so-called standard model of physics.
[…]
The results did not pass the statistical threshold that scientists consider to be ironclad enough to claim a discovery, but they do come after similar findings from previous surveys that hint a crack could be opening up between theoretical predictions and what is actually going on in the universe.

“If the finding stands up it’s very exciting,” said Dr Chihway Chang, an astrophysicist at the University of Chicago and a lead author. “The whole point of physics is to test models and break them. The best scenario is it helps us understand more about the nature of dark matter and dark energy.”

Since the big bang 13bn years ago, the universe has been expanding, but matter has also been cooling and clumping as gravity pulls denser areas together, creating a cosmic web of galaxy clusters and filaments. As scientists have worked to understand this cosmic tug of war, a bizarre picture has emerged in which only about 5% of the contents of the universe are accounted for by ordinary matter. Approximately 25% is so-called dark matter, invisible mass that is contributing gravitationally, but otherwise invisible. The remaining 70% is dark energy – a mysterious phenomenon that is said to explain why the expansion of the universe is accelerating rather than being slowed down by gravity.
[…]
The analysis indicates that matter is not as “clumpy” as expected. According to Prof Carlos Frenk, a cosmologist at the University of Durham who was not involved in the research, there are three likely explanations. First, it could be a result of noise in the data or a systematic error in the telescope. It is also possible that, rather than a major rewrite of cosmological theory, a poorly understood astronomical phenomenon could explain the results. “For example, supermassive black holes at the centres of galaxies can produce huge jets of radiation that can, in principle, push the matter around and smooth it out a bit,” he said.

The third, most exciting option, is that the discrepancy is explained by entirely new physics, such as the existence of new kinds of neutrinos, exotic behaviour of the dark energy or unconventional forms of dark matter. “From the three possibilities, I hope it is the last one, I fear it is the second one but I suspect it is the first one,” said Frenk.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jan/31/less-clumpy-universe-may-suggest-existence-of-mysterious-forces

…&…well…I’m no astrophysicist…but…some inferences seem more reasonable than others

Boris Johnson has said anyone who suspects he knowingly covered up lockdown parties in No 10 is “out of their mind”.

The former prime minister said the claim was “strictly for the birds”, despite being under investigation for allegedly lying to parliament over lockdown breaches.
[…]
Johnson’s interview will be aired on Friday, during Dorries’ first show on the Murdoch-owned channel.
[…]
The former prime minister, forced out of office by the Conservatives after a series of scandals, is expected to give evidence to the inquiry in the coming months.

He had repeatedly told the Commons there were no rule-breaking parties in Downing Street, and that the rules had been followed at all times.

But the Metropolitan police issued 126 fines for breaches of Covid rules, including to Johnson, for offences spanning a series of gatherings in 2020 and 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/01/boris-johnson-anyone-who-thinks-i-covered-up-parties-is-out-of-their-mind

…& when it comes to value for money

Officials at the government’s spending watchdog are examining the controversial decision to provide £220,000 of taxpayers’ money to fund Boris Johnson’s legal defence for the inquiry into his Partygate denials.

The National Audit Office (NAO) has yet to decide whether to mount a formal investigation, but one of its directors is planning to speak to the Cabinet Office about it.

On top of the six-figure budget already established, sources have also indicated more money could be set aside to cover the former prime minister’s legal advice, given the privileges committee’s investigation could drag on into next month.

The revelations came as Johnson issued a fresh defence of his actions as PM during lockdown, insisting: “I thought what we were doing was within the rules.”

…I mean…it seems pretty clear at this point that it wasn’t…& if the people making the rules apparently couldn’t understand them…you’d be forgiven for thinking they’d have only themselves to blame…but…it sure does seem like talking bollocks is an extremely profitable endeavour

After leaving No 10, Johnson has seen his income rocket due to joining the speaking circuit, an advance payment for his memoirs and other visits and articles. Since October 2022, he has declared earnings of £2,296,905 – on top of his MP’s salary.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/01/watchdog-examines-220000-public-funding-for-boris-johnson-partygate-defence

…since october…& he can’t put his hand in his pocket to take 10% & cover his own legal bills…let me just infer a thing or two

A long-running dispute over pay and working conditions came to a head Wednesday, with hundreds of thousands of British workers taking part in what organizers said was the biggest day of industrial action in more than a decade.

About 500,000 workers joined in the day of mass action, as teachers, train and bus drivers, university lecturers, civil servants and airport staff staged walkouts. The huge show of discontent comes amid rampant inflation and years of stagnant wage growth, and it puts further pressure on the long-ruling Conservative Party as it grapples with a cost-of-living crisis.
[…]
The day of coordinated action is only the latest in what British newspapers have dubbed the “Winter of Discontent,” named after a period in 1978-79 characterized by widespread stoppages.

Catherine Barnard, a British academic who specializes in employment law at the University of Cambridge, said Britain has the toughest striking laws in Europe. Disgruntled workers have to jump through many hoops before they can strike — and they are set to get tougher.
[…]
Still, various workers have been striking en masse since last summer — and since then, the scale of the strikes has only escalated.
[…]
Workers say that they are underpaid and overworked and that their salaries, over many years, have not kept up with rising costs. Teachers in the middle of the salary scale, for instance, have seen their wages drop by 9 to 10 percent in real terms between 2010 and 2022, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The government says it cannot pay teachers what they are requesting because it would fuel inflation, which is more than 10 percent.

Both sides are digging in their heels, and several unions have penciled in further strikes in the days and weeks ahead. Newspapers have calendars and interactive tools to help readers figure out what strikes are on in their area and when. Next week, nurses are expected to once again join the picket lines. When they went on strike in December, it was the first time they had done so in their union’s 106-year history.
[…]
When Sunak became prime minister last year, he pitched himself as the responsible manager of the economy: the person who would clean up the economic mess of his predecessor and, he hoped, get things back on track in time for the next election, which must be held by January 2025. Like Margaret Thatcher, the former Conservative leader who is still lionized in the party, Sunak’s government is not backing down to the unions and has introduced new “anti-strike” legislation.

[…] His government has been dogged by allegations of “sleaze,” and the economic outlook is gloomy. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday predicted that the United Kingdom would be the only major global economy to slide into recession in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/01/britain-strike-unions-cost-of-living/

…so…the tories have been running the show for a decade or so…during which there has of course been kind of a lot going on…but…if you were curious about how the whole brexit thing was going

“Remoaner” was a clever Brexit epithet for the 48% of us who voted remain. The heartbreak of this act of national self-harm left remainers keening in grief, in a long moan for the loss of an ideal, along with certain economic decline. The ache, too, was over the broken old Labour alliances of interest and belief, cities against towns, old against young, those with qualifications against those with few. With the sorrow there was rage, white-hot and vengeful, against cynical Brexit leaders who knowingly sold snake oil and fairy dust.
[…]
But there is to be no rejoining, no way back to the customs union or single market, Labour says, so as to deny Tory strategists what they yearn for: a re-run of Brexit at the next general election to distract from the economy, the cost of living crisis and collapsed public services. Distressed Labour rejoiners point to how many leavers are now Bregretters. With this rapid shift still ongoing, the pollster John Curtice says that 57% of people are in favour of rejoining, with just 43% for staying out, while 49% think Brexit weakens the economy.
[…]
There is some cheer: these polls cause such alarm to the Brexit mis-leaders that they are the moaners now – the Bremoaners. Hannan, the ex-MEP and arch-purveyor of Brexit fabrications, is trying to scare defecting Brexit voters back. “There really does seem to be a plot to overturn Brexit,” he warns Telegraph readers. He uses Lammy’s speech as evidence, plus Labour’s resistance to the EU deregulation law. “There is little doubt the Europhile blob is giving it a go,” he writes, “to hold Britain within the EU’s regulatory orbit pending an attempt at re-entry.”

He also warns: “For their plan to have the slightest chance of success, they need to convince the country that Brexit has been an economic disaster.” But that ship has long sailed. Look what Brexit has done: a 4% shrinkage in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU, expects the Office for Budget Responsibility, inflation and energy prices are higher than in the EU, trade has fallen by almost a fifth, while the government itself says the much-trumpeted Australian deal will raise GDP by less than 0.1% a year by 2035. Brexit has raised food prices by 6% says the LSE, while draining the workforce. Eurostar also deliberately leaves a third of seats empty due to crippling EU/UK border delays.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/31/three-years-on-brexit-uk-voters-rejoining-eu-labour-europe

…or…to put that in context

Even Russia – hit by swingeing economic sanctions by the global community due to its invasion of Ukraine – will out-perform Britain, the IMF said.
[…]
In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF predicted the UK economy will shrink by 0.6% in 2023, compared to its October prediction that it would grow by 0.3%.
[…]
In an attempt to put a positive gloss on the IMF forecast, chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “The governor of the Bank of England recently said that any UK recession this year is likely to be shallower than previously predicted, however these figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies.

The UK Economy Will Perform Worse Than Every Other Major Country In 2023 – Including Russia [HuffPo]

…not immune? …granted, understatement is something of a birthright for the brits…but…so is rhyming slang…mr hunt…nuff said…well…probably not, in fact…but I’m trying to be polite…still & all…an act of self-harm so extreme that it makes more of a fiscal dent than a deeply unpopular & prolonged invasion of another country against which the bulk of western civilization has rallied around to impose sweeping economic penalties…you’d think even the most fervent proponents of the faith might be hard pressed to sweep that under the rug…but…like the man said…there are lies, damned lies…& statistics

As the showdown over raising the nation’s debt ceiling drags on, lawmakers have spun up an array of deceptive statistics to blame their political opponents.

Republicans have misleadingly minimized their party’s own contributions and wrongly suggested that Democrats and President Biden are solely to blame. For their part, Democrats have overstated former President Donald J. Trump’s role in reaching the debt limit.
[…]
Democrats won a majority in the House in the 2018 midterm elections, but Republicans retained a majority in the Senate. Under a divided Congress and with Mr. Trump in the White House, discretionary spending totaled $1.3 trillion in the 2019 fiscal year, which ended in September 2019. That figure increased by $400 billion to an estimated $1.7 trillion in the 2022 fiscal year.

It is also worth noting that the 2019 fiscal year is the last year before the coronavirus pandemic took hold, spurring both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden as well as Congress to approve sweeping stimulus packages that added heavily to the government’s tab. In the 2020 fiscal year, under a Republican president and Senate, discretionary spending reached $1.6 trillion. The first Covid-19 stimulus bill, which Mr. McCarthy voted for and which was enacted in March 2020, included nearly $300 billion in discretionary spending through the 2022 fiscal year.

Mr. McCarthy’s claim that the national debt has exceeded gross domestic product by 20 percent for the first time in 80 years is also inaccurate. At the end of 2021, the national debt was at 121 percent of G.D.P. But that is actually a decrease from 2020, the last year of Mr. Trump’s presidency, when it had reached 127 percent.
[…]
When Mr. Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. When he left office on Jan. 20, 2021, it was $27.8 trillion — an increase of $7.9 trillion or about a quarter of today’s total debt of $31.5 trillion.
[…]
The C.B.O. estimated that Mr. Trump’s tax cuts — which passed in December 2017 with no Democrats in support — roughly added another $1 trillion to the federal deficit from 2018 to 2021, even after factoring in economic growth spurred by the tax cuts.
[…]
Spending under Mr. Biden has indeed added trillions to the deficit, but Mr. Scalise is wrong that this level of spending is unprecedented. Moreover, more than $2 trillion of that spending was enacted with Republican support.

The Peterson Foundation estimated that spending under Mr. Biden so far has added $4.1 trillion, while the ​​Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated $4.8 trillion including interest, which a spokeswoman for Mr. Scalise cited. But that figure is still smaller than the amount added to the deficit under the previous administration of about $7 trillion to $8 trillion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/us/politics/debt-ceiling-fact-check.html

…&…if you didn’t read it when @loveshaq dropped a link to essentially the same piece before it showed up in the guardian…the whole national debt thing ain’t what it used to be

It’s always the same when Republicans take over a chamber of Congress or the presidency. Horrors! The debt is out of control! Federal spending must be cut!

When they’re in power, they rack up giant deficits, mainly by cutting taxes on corporations and the wealthy (which amount to the same thing, since wealthy investors are the major beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts).

Then when Democrats take the reins, Republicans blame them for being spendthrifts.

Not only is the Republican story false, but it leaves out the bigger and more important story behind today’s federal debt: the switch by America’s wealthy over the last half century from paying taxes to the government to lending the government money.
[…]
Even as the rich have accumulated unprecedented wealth, they are now paying a lower tax rate than middle-class Americans.

Trump’s 2017 tax cut – largely a handout to the rich – helped push the tax rate on the 400 wealthiest households below the rates for almost everyone else.

By 2018, the 400 wealthiest American households paid a lower total tax rate – including federal, state and local taxes – than any other income group. Their overall tax rate was only 23%. It had been 70% in 1950.
[…]
In the first full year of the Trump tax cut, the federal budget deficit increased by $113bn while corporate tax receipts fell by about $90bn, which would account for nearly 80% of the deficit increase.

Meanwhile, America’s wealthy have been financing America’s exploding debt by lending the federal government money, for which the government pays them interest.

As the federal debt continues to mount, these interest payments are ballooning – hitting a record $475bn in the last fiscal next year (which ran through September). The Congressional Budget Office predicts that interest payments on the federal debt will reach 3.3% of the GDP by 2032 and 7.2% by 2052.
[…]
Hence the giant half-century switch: the wealthy used to pay higher taxes to the government. Now the government pays the wealthy interest on their loans to finance a swelling debt that’s been caused largely by lower taxes on the wealthy.

This means that a growing portion of everyone else’s taxes is going to wealthy Americans in the form of interest payments, rather than paying for government services that everyone needs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/01/republicans-arent-going-to-tell-americans-the-real-cause-of-our-314tn-debt

…while…although I’m pretty sure the foundation is associated with a different peterson…there’s always the other false economy this one clings to

Canadian psychologist and darling of conservatives and the alt-right, Jordan Peterson, has been on an all-out attack on the science of climate change and the risks of global heating.
[…]
Since December, Peterson has been on something of a crusade publishing four interviews – each more than 90 minutes long – collectively amassing more than 2.2m views on YouTube alone.

The titles of Peterson’s latest offerings give a flavour of the content. “The World is not Ending”, “Unsettled: Climate and Science” and “The Great Climate Con”.

Last year Peterson came in for scathing criticism from climate scientists after claiming climate models were mostly useless. Peterson had badly misunderstood how models work, they said, with one saying: “He sounds intelligent, but he’s completely wrong.”

…eh…I’m not even sure he sounds intelligent…but there’s no accounting for taste

One interview with retired MIT meteorologist Prof Richard Lindzen – a well-known veteran of contrarianism among climate science deniers – ran under the title “Climate Science: What Does it Say?”.
[…]
Prof Steve Sherwood, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, described several of Lindzen’s arguments as “very old zombie points” that were never fair “and have become much less true over time.”

For example, Peterson argued – and Lindzen agreed – the “putative contribution of carbon dioxide to global warming” might be swamped by the margin of error of the contribution of another important greenhouse gas – water vapor.
[…]
“That’s not true,” says Prof Piers Forster, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Leeds. “For more than half a century laboratory measurements, balloon measurements and detailed radiative transfer calculations have been able to calculate the greenhouse effect of both CO2 and water vapour to within a few percent.”

Sherwood adds the effect of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere was “not putative,” but rather was “measurable from space and guaranteed by simple physical principles that has been understood for well over a century and have been used successfully for many decades in all sorts of technological applications such as infrared sensors and telescopes.”
[…]
Putting aside the question of why a conversation about the findings of the IPCC should discuss a report from 20 years ago when there have been three more up-to-date volumes since, Sherwood says Lindzen’s statement on the sensitivity of the planet to CO2 “is complete rubbish.”

“Lindzen and other sceptics have produced no refutation to the extensive evidence-based calculations presented in the most recent IPCC report,” Sherwood said, pointing also to a study he led in 2020.
[…]
There’s a whole field of academic study on the social and psychological dynamics of climate science denial. Manufacturing doubt erodes public support for climate action. Public awareness that almost all climate scientists agree climate change is real and is caused by humans is seen as an important part of the public’s climate literacy.
[…]
Lindzen said: “There are some studies like one by a man called Cook that were just bogus. They ended up looking at 50 papers specially selected… it was nonsense.”

That “man called Cook” is Dr John Cook whose 2013 study while at the University of Queensland assessed 11,000 scientific papers – not 50 – published between 1991–2011.

Cook said that of 4,000 studies that did state a position on the cause of global heating, 97% agreed that humans were the cause.

Cook said: “Lindzen cherry picks a small part of our data – narrowing in on the studies that quantify the amount of human-causation – then criticises our study for not including many studies.”

Cook’s study is one of at least seven to have found very high levels of agreement among climate scientists that humans cause climate change.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2023/feb/02/jordan-petersons-zombie-climate-contrarianism-follows-a-well-worn-path

…still…when it comes to identifying potential harms

The United States on Tuesday accused Russia of not complying with its obligations under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the only remaining treaty limiting the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
[…]
The allegations of noncompliance come months after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend the Ukrainian territory that Russia has illegally annexed. Western leaders later said the threat level appeared to have been reduced.

The demise of New START would mark the near-total collapse of the nuclear nonproliferation architecture that the United States and the Soviet Union, and then Russia, built in the 1980s and 1990s.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/31/russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty-ukraine/

…post-apocalypse it probably doesn’t make much difference what cataclysmic force claims the credit…but…pre-apocalypse…well

Oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are slated to report a combined profit of $190 billion for 2022 when their final quarterly results are released in the coming days, according to estimates from analysts collated by Refinitiv.
[…]
In recent quarters, Big Oil executives have said the significant disruption to global energy markets due to the war in Ukraine has reaffirmed the importance of helping to solve “the energy trilemma.” This, according to a statement to investors from BP CEO Bernard Looney late last year, refers to “secure, affordable and lower carbon energy.”
[…]
The oil and gas industry has sought to underline the importance of energy security amid calls for a rapid transition to renewables, typically highlighting that demand for fossil fuels remains high.
[…]
“What we saw happening in 2022 is that the oil majors used the high oil prices and the energy crisis to convince investors that the energy crisis should eclipse the climate crisis — and that has caused a setback,” [Mark] van Baal [founder of Dutch shareholder activist Follow This] said.

After ultimately failing with several climate resolutions in 2022, van Baal said it was clear from discussions with oil majors that they were once again determined to fend off activist and shareholder pressure and continue with their core oil and gas businesses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/big-oil-earnings-preview-energy-giants-to-smash-annual-profit-records.html

…how can I put this

In a complaint filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the group Global Witness argues that Shell’s classifications amount to “greenwashing” — the practice of portraying a business or product as more environmentally friendly than it really is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/01/oil-giant-shell-accused-greenwashing-misleading-investors/

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been urged to act over Shell’s most recent annual report in which it stated 12% of its capital expenditure was funneled into a division called Renewables and Energy Solutions in 2021. The division’s webpage, which is adorned with pictures of wind turbines and solar panels, says it is working to invest in “wind, solar, electric vehicle charging, hydrogen, and more”.

However, Global Witness, the activist group that has lodged the new complaint with the SEC, argues that just 1.5% of Shell’s capital expenditure has been used to develop genuine renewables, such as wind and solar, with much of the rest of the division’s resources devoted to gas, which is a fossil fuel.[…]
Shell does not have a full breakdown of its renewable energy activity in its annual reports but Global Witness said that by examining the document they could find $288m in wind and solar investment in 2021, which is equivalent to 1.5% of Shell’s capital expenditure. Much of the spending by the Renewables and Energy Solutions division appears to be on the trading and marketing of gas.
[…]
Should the SEC act over the issue, it will mark the most aggressive regulatory foray yet by the US federal government against a fossil fuel sector that is facing multiple lawsuits in several states for misleading investors and the public over what they knew about the climate crisis.

Shell, which is headquartered in London but is listed on the New York stock exchange, has denied misleading investors. “We’re confident Shell’s financial disclosures are fully compliant with all SEC and other reporting requirements,” said a company spokeswoman.

…uh-huh…& boris didn’t know he was taking liberties with rules he had a hand in devising…oh, & while you’re at it…can I interest you in a bridge I have for sale?

Most of the world’s largest oil companies now accept that burning their product is causing global heating and have committed to the goals of the Paris climate agreement. But their shift away from fossil fuels has been ponderous – only about 5% of oil and gas company capital expenditure went to wind, solar and other renewables in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. This was up from just 1% in 2019.

Last year was a particularly lucrative one for oil companies’ traditional business model, with soaring fossil fuel costs in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompting record profits for some of the wealthiest businesses in the world. Exxon made a record annual profit of nearly $56bn last year, while Chevron has reported a $36.5bn profit for 2022.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/01/shell-renwable-energy-spending-sec-global-witness

The Biden administration has advanced a $8bn drilling project on Alaska’s north slope. The ConocoPhillips Willow project, which would be one of the largest oil and gas developments on federal territory, has drawn fierce opposition from environmentalists, who say its approval runs counter to the president’s ambitious climate goals.
[…]
Environmental groups and the Native village of Nuiqsut, which would be most affected by the project in the northernmost stretch of Alaska, have opposed the project, which they say would mark the end of a way of life for communities in the rapidly warming Arctic. It would also exacerbate air pollution problems in a region where oil and gas extraction projects are already contributing to elevated rates of asthma and other health conditions.

“Willow is a carbon bomb that cannot be allowed to explode in the Arctic,” said Karlin Nageak Itchoak, senior regional director at the non-profit Wilderness Society. Already, the Arctic has been warming almost four times faster than the rest of the world.
[…]
The environmental review is a final step toward approval and comes after a years-long dispute between ConocoPhillips and the government over the corporation’s right to drill on federal territory in the Arctic. Willow would be located inside the 23m-acre (93m-hectare) National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, which is the largest tract of undisturbed public land in the United States.
[…]
Biden had promised during his election campaign to end federal oil and gas drilling, and transition toward renewable energy. But as oil prices rise as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the president has faced further pressure to increase drilling.

Alaska’s two Republican senators and the state’s sole congressional representative, a Democrat, have urged the administration to approve the project, which the say would boost the state’s economy. Some Alaska Native tribal governments organizations, including the Inupiat Community of the Arctic Slope and the Alaska Federation of Natives, have supported the project for similar reasons.

But environmental groups and tribes including those in Nuiqsut have countered that any jobs and money the project brings in the short term will be negated by the environmental devastation it will cause in the long run.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/01/alaska-oil-drilling-biden-conocophillips-willow-project

The variables that will determine oil companies’ profitability this year are largely out of their control — in both supply and demand. The war in Ukraine could expand or not; a recession in the United States and Europe could be deep or averted entirely. Prices for fuels, and inflation generally, will largely depend on how events play out.
[…]
The International Energy Agency has projected that oil demand this year will grow modestly, by nearly two million barrels a day, reaching 101.7 million barrels a day. That may support oil company profits.
[…]
Even with last year’s bottom-line bonanza for the oil companies, executives have been wary of aggressively pursuing new investments that would yield production gains. But there are indications that they may be recalibrating that risk aversion.
[…]
Exxon reported in December that it would spend $23 billion to $25 billion on exploration and production this year, which experts say could drive an increase of more than 10 percent in its production of oil and gas. That is a partial reversal from declines in activity during the pandemic.
[…]
Chevron plans to spend roughly $17 billion this year on exploration and production, over 25 percent more than it did last year but still less than the company had projected it would spend in 2020 before the pandemic slashed demand for energy during most of 2020 and 2021.

American oil companies have increasingly focused their investments in the Western Hemisphere. Last year, Chevron broke its record for oil and gas production in the United States even as its global output declined by more than 3 percent in 2022 from the year before. Exxon reported that it increased its combined production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, its principal growth drivers, by over 30 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/business/energy-environment/exxon-chevron-oil-gas-profit.html

…vested interests or no

The Myanmar military seized power in February 2021 and according to the United Nations special rapporteur on Myanmar, it is “committing war crimes and crimes against humanity daily”. More than 2,940 people, including children, pro-democracy activists and other civilians have been killed, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

Amid this violence, leaked Myanmar tax records and other reports appear to show that US, UK and Irish oil and gas field contractors – which provide essential drilling and other services to Myanamar’s gas field operators – have continued to make millions in profit in the country after the coup.

The documents were obtained by transparency non-profit Distributed Denial of Secrets and analysed by Myanmar activist group Justice For Myanmar, investigative journalism organisation Finance Uncovered and the Guardian.

The documents suggest that in some cases the subsidiaries of major US gas field service firms continued working in Myanmar – even after the US state department warned in January last year there were significant risks in doing business in the country – including with state-owned entities that financially benefit the junta, such as the national oil and gas company Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE).
[…]
MOGE collects taxes and royalties for the state on gas field projects, ensuring that the junta gets lucrative tax and royalty payments, as well as a vast share of profits. According to the junta’s own figures the oil and gas industry is its biggest source of foreign-currency revenue, bringing in $1.72bn in the six months to 31 March 2022 alone.
[…]
Activists argue that any role played by western gas field contractors in Myanmar’s gas and oil industry after the coup makes them complicit in the junta’s war of aggression. Some legal experts argue the contractors could face future legal issues from their activities in the country.
[…]
The situation is complicated by the US’s ambiguous stance on MOGE. Myanmar’s state-owned gems, pearl and timber industries have been sanctioned by the US but Washington has not yet tackled MOGE, the linchpin in the junta’s largest single source of foreign revenue.

In 2021 the New York Times reported that the oil giant Chevron had led an intense lobbying effort against sanctions that would disrupt oil operations in the country. That report came after the UN’s special rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, had told Congress that MOGE was “now effectively controlled by a murderous criminal enterprise” and called on it and other state entities to be sanctioned in order to “meaningfully degrade the junta’s sources of revenue”.

Last January, the state department did specifically warn of the dangers of doing business in the country and cited MOGE as particularly problematic. MOGE and other state-owned enterprises “not only generate revenue for a military regime that is responsible for lethal attacks against the people of Burma, but many of them also are subject to allegations of corruption, child and forced labor, surveillance, and other human and labor rights abuses”, it warned.

But while the US has put sanctions on the State Administration Council – the junta’s ruling body which controls MOGE through the ministry of energy – it has stopped short of imposing tougher sanctions on MOGE itself. And the US commerce department’s country commercial guide for Myanmar, last updated in July 2022, describes the “dynamic” oil and gas sector as a “best prospect industry” with “significant opportunities for US investors”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/01/myanmar-oil-gas-companies-profits-regime-coup

…you’d think even in texas folks would be coming round to the idea that the climate ain’t what it used to be

The dangerous conditions are not over. A nasty combination of freezing rain, sleet and accumulating ice are expected hit parts of Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee through at least Thursday morning, forecasters said.
[…]
In Texas alone, more than 350,000 homes, businesses and other power customers had no electricityin the frigid cold Wednesday night, according to PowerOutage.US.
[…]
Total ice accumulation of at least a quarter of an inch is likely from West Texas to western Tennessee through Thursday morning. Up to a half-inch could build up in parts of central and north-central Texas and southern Arkansas, the National Weather Service said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/01/weather/winter-ice-storm-south-central-us-wednesday/index.html

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/01/us-winter-storm-texas-south-central

…& liquid assets are draining all over the shop

California filed a competing conservation plan for the Colorado River on Tuesday, just one day after opting out of a proposal put forward by six other western states, signaling a breakdown in negotiations over how to drastically cut water use from the imperiled waterway.

Officials with the Bureau of Reclamation had called on the states to come to a consensus on how to curb between 2 and 4m acre-feet or roughly enough water to supply 8m households for a full year.
[…]
Meanwhile, water resources in the mighty Colorado river system are rapidly dwindling. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the largest reservoirs in the US, are roughly a quarter full.
[…]
As the sole holdout in an agreement reached by the six other states in the pact, California’s plan leaned heavily on its senior rights to the water, which stretch back more than a century, and refused to take more from its sprawling agricultural sector.
[…]
Under California’s plan, its Imperial Irrigation District, an arid hub of cropland in the south-eastern part of the state, would retain more access to water than Arizona and Nevada combined.
[…]
In the six-state plan, which carved out more than 3m acre-feet in reductions if the reservoirs drop beyond the triggering threshold, cuts would largely come from California’s share, and factors in 1.5m acre-feet of Colorado River water lost to evaporation and transportation along the lower part of river.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/01/colorado-river-western-states-duelling-plans-climate-crisis-california

In a closed-door negotiation last week over the fate of the Colorado River, representatives from California’s powerful water districts proposed modeling what the basin’s future would look like if some of the West’s biggest cities – including Phoenix and Las Vegas – were cut off from the river’s water supply, three people familiar with the talks told CNN.
[…]
One source familiar with the meeting disputed that California asked to model cutting other agencies and cities all the way to zero but stipulated that if California was to compromise to other states’ demands, it also wanted to see one of the options follow the river’s current strict priority system “as the default baseline.”

In an interview with CNN Wednesday, California’s Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot underscored the state’s official proposal would protect baseline water supplies for cities and communities throughout the West.

“We want to make sure everyone understands the California proposal prioritizes those baseline supplies for communities,” Crowfoot said. “Nobody wants to entertain the possibility of any community in any state not having the water supplies its communities need on a daily basis.”
[…]
The question is who bears the brunt of the unprecedented cuts needed to keep Colorado River flowing into America’s largest reservoirs. If the feds take a heavy hand, it could set the stage for a tense legal battle – all while the nation’s largest reservoirs continue to decline.
[…]
California’s proposal would kick in if Lake Mead reached an elevation of 1,000 feet and Lake Powell an elevation of 3,500 feet – precariously close to those reservoirs’ “dead pool” levels, when water is so low it will no longer flow through the dams.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/us/california-water-proposal-colorado-river-climate/index.html

…but…who’s (ac)counting?

With the federal government poised to force Western states to change how they manage the alarming shortfall in Colorado River water, there is one constituency with a growing interest in the river’s fate that’s little known to some: Wall Street investors.

Private investment firms are showing a growing interest in an increasingly scarce natural resource in the American West: water in the Colorado River, a joint investigation by CBS News and The Weather Channel has found. For some of the farmers and cities that depend on the river as a lifeline, that interest is concerning.
[…]
According to public records, the hedge fund [a New York-based investment firm called Water Asset Management] — which is headquartered on Madison Avenue in Manhattan — has bought at least $20 million worth of land in Western Colorado in the last five years, making it one of the largest landowners in the Grand Valley.

The hedge fund, founded in 2005, says it invests exclusively in assets and companies that ensure water supply and quality. In 2021, its co-founder and president, Matthew Diserio, called water in the United States “a trillion-dollar market opportunity.”
[…]
Andy Mueller, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, says he doesn’t think the firm wants much with the land.
[…]
“These are folks that have identified the drought as an opportunity to make money,” he added.
[…]
“I view these drought profiteers as vultures,” Mueller said. “They’re looking to make a lot of money off this public resource. Water in Colorado, water in the West, is your future. Without water you have no future.”
[…]
Water Asset Management hired Colorado’s former top water official as one of its lawyers.

The company’s website states, “scarce clean water is the resource defining this century, much like plentiful oil defined the last.”
[…]
People across the region are concerned, including ranchers high in the Colorado Rockies like Kerry Donovan, a former Colorado state senator. She is alarmed by the amount of land being bought in her state by investors for water rights.
[…]
Donovan tried to make Colorado’s anti-speculation laws stronger, but that effort failed.

She offered a theory on how investors could profit from water rights in the state.

“They’ll probably make money,” she says, “because the state will be forced to create a system that doesn’t exist right now to allow more flexibility in how a water right is used.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-york-investors-snapping-up-colorado-river-water-rights-betting-big-on-an-increasingly-scarce-resource/

…I mean…it sounds like a shitty idea…but…again…you’d be amazed by some of the shitty ideas that crop up in places you’d think they were beyond the pale

The Royal Navy has ordered an urgent investigation amid claims that workers on a Trident nuclear armed submarine fixed broken bolts in the vessel’s reactor chamber using glue.
[…]
The bolt heads originally came off due to over-tightening. But, rather than replacing the damaged shafts, staff at the defence contractor Babcock implemented a quick fix and glued them back on.
[…]
The glued bolts held insulation in place on the coolant pipes in the nuclear reactor and were found just as workers were set to fire it up to full power for the first time […]

Babcock is the MoD’s second-largest contractor and has multibillion pound contracts to maintain the navy’s Astute and Vanguard sub fleets.
[…]
The Guardian reported in December last year of safety fears as the submarines had been deployed at sea for record-breaking periods of five months each.
[…]
An MoD spokesperson said: “As part of a planned inspection, a defect was found from work done in the past when HMS Vanguard was in dry dock. It was promptly reported and fixed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/01/royal-navy-orders-investigation-into-nuclear-submarine-repaired-with-glue

…so…ummm…not to worry