…so…everybody’s got a theory…just like everybody’s got a plan…until they get punched in the mouth

I’m hearing a lot of the same arguments about him. He is a lightning rod for people’s economic disaffection across the country. He is the best chance the Republicans have to make conservative ideas become policy, even if he doesn’t really care about the ideas themselves. He is a vehicle for people’s racism. And while there’s some truth to a lot of this, as there always has been, I think there’s something more going on with him. You need to stop thinking about Donald Trump as a presidential candidate.

He’s not even really a former president. He is a pop star.
[…]
Think about it.

…as explanatory theories go…it would explain the taylor swift business

Taylor Swift deepfakes on X falsely depict her supporting Trump [NBC]

…& that sounds frivolous…but…to give the lady with the idea her due…as models go…calling his “movement” a toxic fandom…sounds about right in a bunch of ways?

I think also Trump at a rally, in general, is just looking for moments when the crowd is going to cheer.
[…]
If you’re a fan of a pop star, you demonstrate your devotion by buying multiple colors of the same vinyl or remix after remix of the same milquetoast single to help the object of your devotion top the charts. For Trump, you give whatever hard earned cash you can spare to the Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee. Now, Trump is not the first person to be a celebrity president turbocharged by the internet. Obama’s charisma led him to victory in 2008.
[…]
The fact that the comparisons are so easy to draw between Trump and pretty much every other major pop star on Earth, that should terrify you.
[…]
I’ve spent plenty of time observing the way that online fandoms grow, from fun, easy sources of community to become an amorphous site of slavish devotion to a public figure.

…always get a tad skeptical when anyone says they’ve identified the one thing we ought to be most scared of

The smart star can draw on that sort of devotion in order to raise money, win awards or elections, and most worryingly, vanquish their enemies. I do not think it’s too bold to say that celebrity, supercharged by the attention economy, is the most destabilizing force to democracy in this country.

…but…I don’t have a better candidate immediately to hand…so it’ll do for now…or until the next worse thing rears its ugly head…or heads if we’re talking hydra

When your followers behave like a stan army, that can have dangerous consequences for democracy. The most icky part of online fandom is the way that fans, in the name of their star, will engage in networked harassment. They’ll choose someone who has drawn their ire and sort of collapse on top of them with wave after wave of message, email, post, in order to intimidate people who speak out against the narrative that that star is spinning.

But when that idea is applied to politics, it becomes very, very scary, very fast. Nowhere was this more visible than the events that led to the January 6 insurrection. Yes, a fan army marched on Washington, broke into the Capitol building, threatened the Speaker of the House. They’re being punished by our justice system for their behavior, but the people who we should be more concerned about are the group of members of Congress who were still willing to support Trump’s lies about a stolen election after the Capitol was invaded.

Election workers across the country in 2020 were threatened and harassed by online groups of fans of Donald Trump for what they perceived to be nefarious behavior that has no basis in fact. The fandom polices who is allowed to be in or out. The fandom decides whether you’re a good member or a bad member, not Trump. And if Trump were ever to transgress the MAGA fandom and behave in a way that didn’t match what he was thinking they would do, he probably would be excommunicated, too.

This thing exists outside of him. It is its own force and its own utilitarian power. If he died tomorrow, MAGA would find someone new to latch on to and elevate. So if we don’t talk about fandom and celebrity as Trump’s animating force every single time we talk about him, those who care about democratic ideals and the country’s system of government are not going to be able to figure out how to combat this, either when it comes to Trump or, crucially, when it comes to the next pop star politician who comes after him, whether they’re a Republican or a Democrat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/opinion/donald-trump-pop-star.html

…maybe if I spent more time in fandoms I’d feel more strongly one way or the other…but…if I had to guess…the lady does…so that’s a lens that comes naturally to her…& there’s enough parallels for it to map pretty good…but there’s a little bit of have-hammer-see-nail in the mix…still…as metaphors go…it…does kinda work?

Within 48 hours of the release of a long-awaited immigration and foreign aid bill he had championed, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Republican conference rejected his pitch to support it, knifed the deal and left it for dead.

Just four Republicans voted for it. In the end, even McConnell backtracked and voted against the package that he had helped develop.

…’member when the turtle used to herd them cats like nobody’s business…& now he’s voting against his own shit just to save face

The collapse of the package leaves U.S. aid to Ukraine at risk of ending completely. McConnell, who is accustomed to having GOP senators follow his strategic guidance, has been pleading with them for months not to let Russian strongman Vladimir Putin make incursions into Europe, lest it upend the global order the U.S. has led since World War II. Those pleas have fallen on deaf ears with conservative lawmakers and voters, who align with a Trump wing that has turned against giving Ukraine money and weapons to defend itself.

…of which more, anon

…&…when you get down to it

A year ago, when Washington and much of Europe were still awash in optimism that Ukraine was on the verge of repelling Russia from its territory, it seemed inconceivable that the United States would turn its back on the victim of Vladimir V. Putin’s aggression.

Now, even as Senate Democrats try to salvage an aid package for Ukraine, that possibility remains real. And the political moment feels a long way from 14 months ago when President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine stood before a joint session of Congress, wearing his signature drab green sweater, and basked in a minute-long standing ovation.

The turnaround has surprised the White House. Even if the Senate manages to advance military aid, there are still plenty of reasons to doubt that the money will come through, including deep opposition among Republicans in the House and former President Donald J. Trump’s push for a more isolationist stance.
[…]
If Republicans are willing to abide by Mr. Trump’s demand that they vote against continued aid to Ukraine, one senior European diplomat in Berlin asked on Wednesday, why would Europe rely on Mr. Biden’s assurance that the United States would “defend every inch” of NATO territory? Even some of Mr. Trump’s former national security aides — the ones he long ago split with — are beginning to say that a failure to fund Ukraine would amount to a huge strategic win for Mr. Putin.

…& tucker might think sitting down with his homeboy on home turf is his home run…& puts-the-florid-in-florida might think anything that bolsters him is a win…but…sure is a lot of dick stepping going on when you consider how small a target the ones involved are relative to the size of the clownshoes involved

“The United States has a clear choice: arm the Ukrainians with the weapons they need to defend themselves or cut off aid and abandon democratic Ukraine in its struggle for national survival against Putin’s aggression,” H.R. McMaster, who served for a year as the second of Mr. Trump’s four national security advisers, said on Monday. He noted that while Congress debated, “the abandonment of Kyiv would be a gift to the Moscow-Tehran-Beijing-Pyongyang axis of aggressors. Allies and partners would lose trust in America as those aggressors are emboldened.”

…& he’s out there giving it the whole “none of the bad stuff would be happening if I’d been on deck”…&…I don’t have a number for…leon…or a cadre of bona fide ninjas to cling to the rafters & drip poison down a silk thread into his mouth while he sleeps…or whatever might work…but the fandom lady has a point…even if I did…& they rid us of his troublesome mass…the other mass wouldn’t be less cancerous…tucker’s new-coke-lovin’ audience would still be lapping up that friendly neighborhood despot kool aid…& the world is watching…even those of us who won’t watch his dumb ass outside of that clip where jon stewart calls his number…&…speaking of numbers

Oddly enough, Congress’s threat to derail the aid comes just at the moment that Europe committed $54 billion for rebuilding the country over the next four years, and countries from Norway to Germany are committing new arms aid. “It is remarkable how quickly Europe has moved toward a new and substantive multiyear support program for Ukraine,” said Christoph Trebesch, who directs the production of the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in northern Germany. “For the first time, the U.S. is now lagging behind by a large margin” compared with European aid, he said.
[…]
But this argument, that the West must push back on Russia in Ukraine or face the possibility of fighting it on NATO territory, seems to be losing its effectiveness in Congress. And some Republican members of Congress are still accusing Europe of not pulling its weight, even if the newest financial commitments change the equation.
[…]
But none of these arguments, officials in the U.S. and Europe say, can overcome the reality: If the United States pulls the plug on its financial support for the war, much of the day-to-day military necessities will go away — starting with air defense against the near-daily barrages of missiles, drones and other weaponry aimed at urban centers and critical infrastructure like the electric grid. And if the country’s economy collapses, it will terminate a two-year-long effort to save a fledgling if deeply flawed democracy.

The Republicans opposing the aid don’t argue directly with that logic, though many insist that pouring billions into a country with a deep history of corruption invites misuse. Instead, their primary argument is that the money should be spent at home, on the southern border rather than Ukraine’s borderlands with Russia. The most outspoken of the opponents, including Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida, contend that Ukraine aid “puts America last.”

The United States Has Been a Bulwark for Ukraine. What Happens if Support Collapses? [NYT]

…these fucking carnival clowns & their opposite-day black is white 2+2=22 bullshit make a surprisingly good argument for bringing back duelling…& trial by combat…which reminds me

“We had 10 of us to vote against him at the start of this Congress. There may be a few more people questioning him,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said Wednesday. “I hope a lot of my colleagues are asking themselves: How did we get ourselves in a situation where we’re being blamed for Biden’s open border policy? How could that be possible? The answer is McConnell made that possible.”

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., called McConnell’s moves to reach a border and Ukraine deal a “big tactical error.”

“It was a huge mistake. And I think he’s always cared more about giving money to Ukraine than he has about any other issue,” Paul said of his fellow Kentuckian.
[…]
McConnell rejected claims by his GOP critics that he shouldn’t have engaged in negotiations to pair Ukraine aid with a border and asylum bill, reminding them that it was their idea.

“I followed the instructions of my conference who were insisting that we tackle this in October. It’s actually our side that wanted to tackle the border issue. We started it,” McConnell said. “Things have changed over the last four months.” His office declined to comment further.
[…]
“Usually, when Mitch McConnell stitches together a bill with disparate issues that he wants, he achieves his objective,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., told reporters. “And for the first time we prevailed, so there’s a celebratory mood.”

…every day that five-headed fucker doesn’t wake up in a fucking cell presumably feels like something to celebrate to his skeevy ass…but…this schoolyard bullshit…it might be nothing new…but…the insane degree of irresponsibility his assholishness there is slapping his own back over…it’s…killing people…& pushing for worse…& that…doesn’t bother these assholes…but apparently we don’t get to just lock them up in padded rooms…or lobotomize them…whether or not anyone would notice a difference if we did…it’s like the catch-22 of our times

Asked about Trump’s role in sinking the immigration bill, McConnell said, “I’ve said repeatedly every month that I’m not going to get into comments about the race for the presidency among Republicans. I think, in the end, even though the product is approved by the Border Council that endorsed President Trump, most of my members feel that we’re not going to be able to make a law here.”

Even among right-wing Senate Republicans, attacks on McConnell were unusual for the vast majority of his tenure as leader. Today, they’ve become common. On Tuesday, six Republicans held a press conference and took turns bashing McConnell and his leadership team: Sens. Rick Scott, R-Fla., Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Mike Lee, R-Utah, Ted Cruz, R-Texas, J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., and Roger Marshall, R-Kansas.

Many of them openly question whether McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader, should stay in his job.

…I mean…if mitch has a bad day…usually that would put a smile on my face…but…strange times?

Among right-wing Republicans in both chambers, McConnell has become such a flashpoint that on Tuesday evening, when the House failed to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in an embarrassing vote, a Senate GOP aide texted in jest: “Will be interesting to see how they blame McConnell for this failed vote.”

[…]attribut[ing] the shifting landscape to a more independent-minded Republican Party and “the ability to be a celebrity senator nowadays.” Cramer said his colleagues make a name for themselves “simply by saying ‘no’ to everything and demonizing things before you’ve seen them,” adding, “It’s become way too easy to do that, there’s too much of an audience for it.”

“It’s a lot easier than doing the hard work of legislating,” he said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-kill-border-bill-sign-trumps-strength-mcconnells-waning-influence

…everyone wants to be a frontman…nobody wants to learn how to play a harmony

“I feel like the guy standing in the middle of the field in a thunderstorm, holding up the metal stick,” he told reporters last week. A few days ago, he likened the process to having been run over by a bus — and then having it back up over him again.
[…]
For months, Mr. Lankford, a staunch conservative, labored over the package alongside Senators Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, and Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, demanding strict immigration policies his party insisted must be a part of any bill to send a fresh infusion of aid to Ukraine. But when Mr. Lankford managed to extract them, he found his fellow Republicans unwilling to embrace the plan, in a vivid illustration of how the political ground for any compromise on immigration has vanished for a party that has decided the issue is too valuable as a political weapon to resolve.

…sure…there’s no shortage of americans who couldn’t give two shits what the rest of the world sees when it looks at them…but…this fucking clownshow…my guess is they’d still get all kinds of offended if they came across the caption to that picture in a foreign tongue or two…no cap

He could have seen it coming. Weeks ago, Mr. Lankford revealed on Wednesday, a “popular” right-wing media personality vowed to do “whatever I can to destroy you” if he tried to “move a bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year,” he said.

“By the way,” Mr. Lankford added, “they have been faithful to their promise, and have done everything they can to destroy me.”

…there’s a word for people who try to scuttle the ship everyone’s sailing on

Just as Mr. Lankford and his fellow negotiators neared a deal, former President Donald J. Trump stepped in, trashing the bill both before and after it was released on Sunday and opening the floodgates of Republican resistance. That left Mr. Lankford fighting to keep the deal alive while being attacked by members of his own party, including in his home state, where the Republican Party tried to censure him late last month for “playing fast and loose with Democrats on our border policy.” (The resolution was later rescinded.)

He made no apologies on Wednesday, defending himself in a lengthy speech in which he took on the G.O.P.’s right-wing and made the case — to deaf ears, no doubt — for bipartisanship in a divided government.

“That is how it works to make law: You can do press conferences without the other side, but you can’t make law,” he said.
[…]
The bill he helped write would impose the most significant border restrictions Congress has considered in decades, including measures to raise the bar for asylum claims, expand detention capacity and shut down the border if more than an average of 5,000 migrants per day attempt to cross in a week, or more than 8,500 try to cross in any given day. It reflects a paradigm shift in how Congress has considered modern immigration and border policy, with no mention of pathways toward legalization for undocumented immigrants currently in the country, previously a plank of any immigration legislation Democrats might negotiate.
[…]
On Monday, as Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, declared the bill “even worse than we expected,” Mr. Trump singled out Mr. Lankford for disdain, telling the conservative commentator Dan Bongino on his show that the agreement was a “very bad bill” for Mr. Lankford’s career — “and especially in Oklahoma.”

…uh huh…because there’s a way to take that other than as the sort of not-even-veiled threat employed by your common or garden dimestore extortionist…because oklahoma is clearly the place that the real rubber of the implications of decisions about the mexican border, gaza & ukraine meets the road, right?

Mr. Lankford, who won re-election in 2022 with 64 percent of the vote, is not due to face voters again until 2028, and it was not clear whether his involvement in the deal would hurt him in a state where he enjoys a reservoir of good will.

…like that shit matters to a blowhard dotard…who you tryna kid?

“Are we as Republicans going to have press conferences and complain the border’s bad, and then intentionally leave it open after the worst month in American history in December?” Mr. Lankford said on “Fox & Friends,” adding that few had thought Republicans could secure such significant policy concessions from Democrats.
[…]
“The Scripture references say you work as long as there’s daylight,” he said, “so I’m going to keep working until we know it’s got no chance to be able to move anymore, because I really think the issue needs to be resolved.”

That was not the prevailing attitude among Republicans, particularly hard-right lawmakers who exulted at the collapse of his effort.

To a long thread Mr. Lankford posted on social media trying to defend the bill, Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican of Florida, responded bluntly: “Just take the L.”

Senator James Lankford pleaded with his party not to let politics trump policy, recounting opposition including a right-wing media personality who vowed to do “whatever I can to destroy you.” [NYT]

…if that shit looks like a W…you need your tiny-minded, smooth-brained motherfucking head examined

The people of Gaza cry out for a ceasefire. Each day brings more bloodshed, more devastation, hunger, disease and tears. Spell it out: nearly twenty-eight thousand Palestinian dead. In total, about 100,000 killed, injured or missing. Among the survivors, huge numbers of children, maimed, orphaned, traumatised for life.

Around the world, millions of protesters demand a ceasefire. They appeal to politicians to do more, do anything, to stop the carnage now. In mosques, churches, synagogues, people of all faiths pray the slaughter will end. To Israel’s 1,200 October dead are daily added the lost lives of soldiers sent to avenge them and the hostages cruelly seized by Hamas.

Arab and European governments, the US, Russia, China and Iran all want a ceasefire, or truce, or “humanitarian pause” – or at least, they say they do. Yemen’s Houthis and Iraqi and Syrian militias promise a ceasefire would halt their destabilising attacks. A ceasefire could reduce the risk of catastrophic, escalating regional war.

The global view seems clear. There exists an international consensus, repeatedly expressed through the UN – whose agencies, running out of adjectives to describe the Gaza horrors, are reduced to desperate pleading. This war is inhuman, immoral and unjust. It is hugely damaging, economically and politically. It shames us all and it must be halted, now, immediately. So what’s stopping it? Why on earth is there still no ceasefire?
[…]
Yet even assuming the complex terms of a limited deal are finally agreed, what realistic prospect is there that it will hold, let alone bring a broader peace? The root problem is not the mechanics of a ceasefire but the greatly differing, seemingly irreconcilable short- and long-term agendas of the interested parties. No deal can banish a basic lack of trust.
[…]
Biden’s longer-term “grand bargain” ultimately includes acceptance by Israel of a vague “political horizon” for Palestinians seeking an independent state. Yet for Washington, normalisation of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations – not Palestinian self-determination – is the bigger, more immediate and enticing prize.

As long as Biden refuses to stand up to Netanyahu, US leverage is limited. And if Donald Trump triumphs in November, American support for Israel will probably become unconditional, as Netanyahu, Trump’s buddy, knows full well. Biden’s scheme reflects his electoral need for a big foreign policy win. It pays insufficient attention to what, in all justice, is actually required – starting with a full ceasefire now.

In Israel, unpopular Netanyahu clings to power by a thread. He flatly rejects Hamas’s call for a permanent cessation since this would thwart his foolish, oft-repeated vow to eradicate his enemy and achieve “total victory”. His aim of maintaining Israeli security control of Gaza indefinitely would also be rendered infeasible. He reviles the very thought of a Palestinian state.
[…]
What some call the new “axis of evil” – China, Russia and Iran – could be doing much more to attain the ceasefire they claim to support. Hamas, for example, wants them to provide guarantees. But they, in common with European leaders, have been found wanting so far. Iran’s mullahs are actively enjoying Israel’s travails. They publicly deplore the misery of Gaza’s Palestinians, yet see it privately as a means to advance the national geopolitical agenda.

So why no ceasefire? The simple answer is that self-interested, fearful and ineffectual political leaders obstruct it. One day, hopefully soon, the guns will fall silent in Gaza – if only because all wars come to an end eventually. But how long the quiet lasts is another matter entirely.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/07/gaza-ceasefire-benjamin-netanyahu-joe-biden-hamas-7-october

…still…the band plays on

U.S. Strike in Baghdad Kills Iranian-Backed Militia Commander [NYT]

The strike late on Wednesday came on a main thoroughfare in the Mashtal neighbourhood in eastern Baghdad. A crowd gathered as emergency response teams picked through the wreckage. Security forces closed off the heavily guarded Green Zone, where a number of diplomatic compounds are located, amid calls for protesters to storm the US embassy.
[…]
The strike came amid roiling tensions in the region and days after the US military launched an air assault on dozens of sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian-backed militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in retaliation for a drone strike that killed three US troops in Jordan in late January.
[…]
Reacting to the commander’s death, Iraq’s pro-Iran Al-Nujaba movement in a statement promised a “targeted retaliation”, assuring that “these crimes will not go unpunished”.

The group added that American “violations” will not cease without “a firm official position from the Iraqi government”.

Hamas also condemned a “violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and security”, according to a statement.
[…]
US and allied troops have been attacked more than 165 times in the Middle East since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

Kataib Hezbollah had said in a statement that it was suspending attacks on American troops to avoid “embarrassing the Iraqi government” after the strike in Jordan, but others have vowed to continue fighting.

On Sunday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack on a base housing US troops in eastern Syria killed six fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group allied with the United States.

The latest surge in the regional conflict came shortly after the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Wednesday rejected terms proposed by Hamas for a hostage-release agreement that would lead to a permanent ceasefire, vowing to continue the war until “absolute victory”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/07/baghdad-drone-strike-iraq-iran-militia

…god save us from fucking absolutes

Raichik, 29, is not accused of making any bomb threats in Iowa or anywhere else. But about a day and a half before authorities responded to the threat at Coralville’s Northwest Junior High, Raichik posted that the school offers a “pornographic” book in its library that “teaches kids about gay sex.”
[…]
Coralville was not alone. Officers and government officials in four other jurisdictions — Burbank, California; Minnetonka, Minnesota; Oklahoma City; and Tualatin, Oregon — told NBC News they believe Raichik sparked threats in their localities with her posts on social media that digitally heckle people such as drag performers, LGBTQ teachers and doctors who treat transgender patients. The name “Libs of TikTok” is a reference to the people Raichik mocks on social media — “Libs” being short for “liberal.”
[…]
NBC News identified 33 instances, starting in November 2020, when people or institutions singled out by Libs of TikTok later reported bomb threats or other violent intimidation. The threats, which on average came several days after tweets from Libs of TikTok, targeted schools, libraries, hospitals, small businesses and elected officials in 16 states, Washington, D.C., and the Canadian province of Ontario. Twenty-one of the 33 threats were bomb threats, which most commonly targeted schools and were made via email.

NBC News emailed Raichik on Monday seeking comment on the threats. She did not respond directly, but said in a post on X that NBC News was working on a “hit piece.”

“They do it to try to paint me as an extremist to discredit me. This ‘b*mb threat’ narrative is really getting old,” she wrote, adding a yawning-face emoji.
[…]
Prosecutors have pursued charges in only three of the 33 instances NBC News reviewed: At least three people have been charged with threatening Boston Children’s Hospital or Boston doctors, a juvenile was arrested after being accused of making a threat at an Oregon middle school, and five members of the white nationalist hate group Patriot Front were convicted of conspiring to riot at an Idaho Pride event.

The charging documents associated with those prosecutions did not mention either Libs of TikTok or Raichik.

…if they had…you think that might wake her yawning ass up?

Of the 33 instances, law enforcement or school officials in four jurisdictions said, there were indications — such as email addresses with a non-U.S. domain — that the threats could have come from people in foreign countries.

Raichik, the founder of the Libs of TikTok social media brand, has become an internet celebrity among some conservatives for her willingness to criticize teachers, doctors and other professionals who are LGBTQ or who are accepting of LGBTQ people. Raichik often posts their names and photographs alongside accusations of wrongdoing to X, where she has 2.8 million followers.

Konstantine Anthony, a City Council member in Burbank, said he received violent threats by email less than an hour after Libs of TikTok posted a video of him. The video showed Anthony, who at the time was Burbank’s mayor, getting spanked by a drag queen at a political fundraiser, and Libs of TikTok’s post said it happened “in front of children.” Anthony said no children were present. He was clothed and laughing in the video.

Anthony told NBC News that based on the timing, he believes he and his City Hall staff received at least two bomb threats “as a direct result of Libs of TikTok.”
[…]
Libs of TikTok has now taken on a large and growing role in the nation’s culture wars. It provides ammunition to conservatives by collecting and posting examples of what it considers far-left ideology, such as TikTok videos of teachers discussing race or screenshots from gender clinic websites. Elon Musk, who restored Libs of TikTok on X after it was suspended under previous ownership, frequently shares the account’s posts on his own X profile, and the account’s followers on X include a number of politicians such as Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. Former President Donald Trump hosted Raichik for dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate in January 2023. Tucker Carlson, then a Fox News host, featured her on his show in December 2022. Raichik claimed to be at the Jan. 6, 2021, riot outside the U.S. Capitol, though not in the building, according to The Washington Post.

On Jan. 23, Raichik was appointed to the Oklahoma Department of Education’s Library Media Advisory Committee by Superintendent Ryan Walters. At least one lawmaker has referred to the bomb threats when contesting Raichik’s appointment to the committee.

…these…fucking…people…are…fucking…terrorists…& a lot of ’em didn’t have a problem with waterboarding or people in gitmo with no clock on the play…so…I think we could fairly make an inference or two, there

She continues to post the identifying details and images of her subjects. She has rarely criticized the threat-makers or urged them to stop. She told The Washington Post in September 2022, when the newspaper was reporting on threats against children’s hospitals: “We 100 % condemn any acts/threats of violence.”
[…]
But some of her followers take her posts as an invitation. People have replied with the phone numbers of schools, the names of teachers and school board members and requests for Raichik to provide more details so that users can take action.

“Need to post the school name so calls can be made,” one user replied to a recent Libs of TikTok post on X. Raichik did not respond.

Vice News reported Oct. 4 that at least 11 schools or school districts that were targeted by Libs of TikTok in the prior month received bomb threats days later.

Libs of TikTok is part of a right-wing ecosystem on social media that has targeted transgender people, drag performers, LGBTQ advocates and others in recent years.
[…]
For other school districts, the threats that followed a Libs of TikTok post have meant more than a one-day evacuation. Oklahoma’s Union Public Schools was the target of bomb threats for six days in August — a series that began one day after an Aug. 21 Libs of TikTok post criticizing an elementary school librarian. The librarian had said online that she emphasized social justice in her teaching.
[…]
In September, police in Salem, Massachusetts, said they responded to three hoax bomb threats in seven days against the city’s elementary school. Three days before the first threat, Libs of TikTok posted about the school.
[…]
He added that his department had to balance competing factors: taking all threats seriously while also considering the “mental trauma inflicted upon school children who are exposed to repeated police emergencies.”

After Libs of TikTok posted, at least 21 bomb threats followed [NBC]

…just as a…thought experiment…how long do you think she’d keep it up if she had to take time out every day to entertain a SWAT team…or three…something something…geese & ganders

In the world of American legal scholarship, Seth Barrett Tillman is an outsider in more ways than one. An associate professor at a university in Ireland, he has put forward unusual interpretations of the meaning of the U.S. Constitution that for years have largely gone ignored — if not outright dismissed as crackpot.

But at 60, Professor Tillman is enjoying some level of vindication. When the U.S. Supreme Court considers on Thursday whether former President Donald J. Trump is barred from Colorado’s primary ballot, a seemingly counterintuitive theory that Professor Tillman has championed for more than 15 years will take center stage and could shape the presidential election.

The Constitution uses various terms to refer to government officers or offices. The conventional view is that they all share the same meaning. But by his account, each is distinct — and that, crucially for the case before the court, the particular phrase “officer of the United States” refers only to appointed positions, not the presidency.
[…]
If a majority of the court accepts Professor Tillman’s rationale, then Mr. Trump would be allowed to appear on the ballot. At issue is the meaning of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, adopted after the Civil War, which bars people from holding office if they participated in an insurrection after having sworn to uphold the Constitution as an officer of the United States.
[…]
Mr. Trump’s legal team led with the idea in its brief to the court, and many supporters of overturning Colorado’s disqualification of Mr. Trump have invoked it — including three former Republican attorneys general, Edwin R. Meese III, Michael Mukasey and William P. Barr.

…billy boy “the lowest” barr…well, shit…now you know it holds enough enough water to say you carried the remainder

But the conservative former judge J. Michael Luttig, in a withering series of posts on X, mocked Mr. Trump and his supporters for having “put all of their eggs in Blackman’s and Tillman’s tattered basket of constitutional interpretation.” He cited a recent Lawfare article that called attention to a letter Justice Antonin Scalia sent Professor Tillman in 2014 rejecting his theory. (Professors Tillman and Blackman published it in an article last year.)

…in a sane world…there’d be some conclusions foregone on that account

Akhil Reed Amar, a Yale Law School professor who submitted a brief siding with Colorado’s top court, portrayed Professor Tillman’s theory as a “gimmick” that relied on tracing words in “all these interesting little ways that makes no sense of the thing as a whole.” He predicted it would get at most three votes on the nine-member court.
[…]
Professor Tillman declined to predict how the Supreme Court would rule but said that even one vote based on his position would lend it credence as a “serious or reasonable point of view.” But asked whether he would feel vindicated if a majority of justices were to endorse it, he struck a tone of resignation.

In one sense, yes, he said. “But in the sense of would there be any vindication in the largest element of American legal academia? I think the answer is no. I think they would still say what the largest numbers have already said, which is that the particular view I put forward is wrong and if the Supreme Court adopted it, they did it for pragmatic reasons they don’t wish to acknowledge.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/us/politics/tillman-constitution-trump-colorado-ballot.html

…if the dude whose exercise in semantic what-if-ery your whole edifice is teetering on top of thinks it won’t balance unless it’s propped up by stuff people pretend isn’t there…then…I like to think we could call that a clear cut case of being full of shit

The damage a conviction might inflict on the Trump campaign was highlighted in a Bloomberg-Morning Consult survey of 4,956 registered voters, conducted on Jan. 16-22 in seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Six of these states — all but North Carolina — voted for Biden in 2020. Trump now leads Biden in all seven of them.

…less than 5,000 people across seven states is…not exactly comprehensive coverage…but…whatever

But when asked, “How willing would you be to vote for Donald Trump if he is convicted of a crime?” 53 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would be “unwilling” to do so; 46 percent said “very unwilling”; and 7 percent said “somewhat unwilling.”

…uh huh

In Biden’s favor, a YouGov survey of 1,000 adults, conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1, found that almost half of all voters are not yet fully aware of the 91 felony counts Trump has been charged with.

YouGov found that 45 percent of respondents were either unaware of or uncertain that Trump had “been charged with falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to Stormy Daniels, a porn star” and that Trump “had been found liable for sexually assaulting and defaming writer E. Jean Carroll.”
[…]
In addition, YouGov found that substantial percentages of voters are unaware, or unsure of whether they know, that federal and state grand juries have charged Trump “with taking highly classified documents from the White House,” that he has “been charged with conspiring to overturn the results of a presidential election” and that he has “been charged with attempting to obstruct the certification of a presidential election.”

…I’d call them the party of let’s-don’t-&-say-we-did…except half the time they say they didn’t while they’re fucking doing it…so the whole thing is admittedly hard to follow

Noah Rothman, writing on Feb. 5 in National Review, “A Hawkish Bill Meets a Dovish G.O.P.,” contends that “Republican opposition to the Senate border deal is bad politics and bad policy,” adding that for Republicans, “Border security was the sine qua non upon which any broader immigration legislation must be based. The compromise legislation released last night appears to fit that bill.”

At the same time, the National Border Patrol Council, the union representing 18,000 border agents and support personnel, announced its support of the Biden-backed Senate bill on Feb. 5, declaring that the measure is “far better than the status quo.”

…& the status quo?

Michael Meehan, a longtime Democratic campaigner who now runs Squared Communications, a public relations, political consulting and media firm, succinctly voiced his optimism in an email:

Trump plays the grand master grievance piano like a full symphony all by himself. No one better at that game. Yet his superpower with the MAGA base is his kryptonite with the independents and reasonable Republicans. The Biden campaign will just need to keep their foot on his head while he drowns with these voters.

The biggest danger facing the Biden campaign is the possibility that Trump reins himself in. The chances of that happening, however, are virtually nil.

Is Trump’s MAGA ‘Superpower’ Actually His Kryptonite? [NYT]

…I dunno…but it ain’t no fucking magic sparkle pony

There [we]re three decisions in front of these judges. First, whether or not the court has jurisdiction to rule at all. Then, whether they should just rule for unofficial acts, like launching a coup to get reelected, or whether they should rule, generally, that Presidents can even be prosecuted for their official acts, like pardoning Roger Stone to buy his silence. Finally, they need to decide how to release the opinion, possibly in a way to give Trump fewer options to stall further.
[…]
As a result, there’s no natural majority, meaning whatever opinion(s) get written will be far harder to map out. It is simply a far harder opinion than most people think, and if they get this wrong, it’s going to lead to far longer delays at both the en banc and SCOTUS level.
[…]
What I don’t understand, however, is how the visible panic of a few TV lawyers who’ve been wrong every step of the way on the January 6 investigation has led to an all-out panic among Democrats.

The result has been self-inflicted impotence.

No judicial outcome will ever be sufficient, by itself, to beat Trump. No realistic Democrat should be staking their electoral hopes on one or some guilty verdicts — not because they wouldn’t help, but because you can’t control that.

Every single person reading this has in their power the ability to do something — whether it’s local electoral work, repeating discussions of Trump’s corruption so much that it begins to drown out stories about Hunter Biden, or educating your neighbors about Trump’s central role in rolling back reproductive choice — to help defeat Trump. Every second you spend worrying about Karen Henderson is time you’re not doing whatever it is that will be most useful in defeating Trump.

Stop making yourself impotent by worrying about the court cases. Stop hoping that any court case is going to be the Magical Sparkle Pony that makes this easy. Stop wallowing in provably false conspiracy theories about the January 6 investigation that ignore a bunch of public things the TV lawyers don’t talk about.

This is not going to be easy, I promise you. Find some way to make yourself useful to make it, at least, easier.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/02/05/stop-treating-rule-of-law-like-a-magical-sparkle-pony-and-get-busy/

…fuck, marcy…we’re trying…but that last step is a fucking doozy

…her explanation of how that ruling by the DC court of appeal might in the end have threaded the needle to take us to the most expedient timeline it could have certainly makes how all that shit works a lot easier to get straight…but…alongside the idea that no single outcome in a court could put him out of our misery…it’s equally true that even if all his desperation delays & hail mary plays weren’t part of the picture…those cases we won’t get verdicts on before november were never going to be through the appeals cycle to a final word by then even on the most optimistic timeline

…still…if I did have a magic sparkle pony of my very own…I’d be training it to kick selective motherfuckers in the head…because it turns out I’m a terrible person

…sorry, y’all