…you can’t put it back in the tube [DOT 4/3/20]

…that’s the problem with applying pressure injudiciously to a volume whose contents don’t simply compress…shit gets messy…& you waste perfectly good toothpaste

…& there’s really no excuse for that sort of thing


…but it’ll be a while before California produces final numbers for who got what in delegate terms so I expect the DNC will be doing their best to make Biden the pastiest candidate of all


…so I’m sure the convention will be just the sort of collegiate affair guaranteed to give the eventual nominee the best possible chance to get their feet under them before entering the fray in earnest & not an Ides of March kind of affair with everybody vying to be Brutus


…because guess what folks…it’s that time again


…yup…it’s all sounding pretty familiar





…not to mention the flaming dumpster on wheels that is the alleged administration’s flailing attempts to look busy before the rapture finally arrives


…& if you think that rapture crack was a shitty joke in poor taste…you’re right…but it isn’t nearly this shitty a joke


…& I’m not getting anything like this degree of bitter aftertaste either


…so here’s a little tip to brighten your day & help you use up some of that wasted toothpaste I was bemoaning at the top of the page…just because you’re special & I like you



  1. Son of a fucking bitch. Warren didn’t win any states and only came in 3rd in MA?! That does it. She needs to drop out so we don’t wind up with Trump curb stomping Biden in November. Maybe if Sanders wins it all he can convince Chuck to step aside and have Warren stand for leader. She’d certainly be much better at it and would be the only real ally of his in the Senate.

    Fuck. Fucking Goddammit.

    • …I hear that…although for my money I’m not sure it makes sense to me for her to ditch out until it’s clear how things look between the other two nearer the convention?

      …it doesn’t look like the numbers have the potential to shift sufficiently to put her in contention as the remaining states finish laying out the cards but I think on balance I’d rather she didn’t fold until the hands were entirely dealt?

      …that said…& with due respect to the predictive wisdom of our esteemed KC…it’s not a result that fills me with the joys of spring…so, yeah…fucking goddamn it is about right?

      • “…I hear that…although for my money I’m not sure it makes sense to me for her to ditch out until it’s clear how things look between the other two nearer the convention?”

        These (and more) are my feelings, too.

        Frankly, I’m mad as hell about the “it’s just Joe and Bernie!” narrative we’ve all been shoehorned into.

        And I’m ALSO extremely worried that, should Warren drop out, we’ll hear even more cries of “Joe needs to pick a Republican veep to win!”

        And I am SO done with everyone in the party’s leadership seemingly being ok with *again* shoving the Overton window rightward out of goddamn Fear.

        We KNOW Trump is getting to run against the two candidates *he* preferred to run against, here. Aside from calling her the slurs he did, Trump said hardly anything to say against Warren–a typical sign of him *not* wanting to deal with someone (ignoring & pretending they don’t exist).

        If Warren drops out & doesn’t take her key issues to the convention, then *her ideas* and all those plans she made with folks from various groups won’t have a chance to get put in as planks at the convention.

        Making Bernie & Joe’s vaguer ideas the party’s platform planks.

        If she *does* stay in, as the field continues to narrow, her fleshed-out policy ideas have a better chance of being adopted by the party.

        I wanted the fucking Hermione. But if we can’t have *her,* we DO still have a chance to get her ideas–and it’d be stupid (if her campaign can afford it), for us to lose them.

        Plus, her still being there shows a “levelheaded, wonky” D in the race, who would remind folks that we DON’T need a Republican veep, because we’ve got PLENTY of good, smart D’s who can tackle the Vice Presidency.

        • What pisses me off more is the voting public.

          Issues don’t matter apparently. Kids in cages? Obama, and Biden keeps dodging immigration and deportation questions. Climate? He told an anti-pipeline activist to go vote for someone else. Women’s rights? Only last year did he ‘denounce’ the Hyde Amendment. Affordable health care? A public option is going to make our system be MORE expensive than even our current disaster! Wall Street? They’re thrilled.

          He’s not a racist, but he gladly worked with racists. He’s not misogynist but he’s very touchy-feely. He’s got his own hit list of covfefes so anyone who didn’t want a president that embarrasses us is SOL.

          Get ready for four more years of Trump, even if it’s not Trump.

          • Six months ago people were saying their first choice was Biden and second was Bernie and vice versa. People just don’t vote on policy or ideology. It’s so hard for the rest of us who are more engaged to wrap our minds around it but there it is.

        • And I’m ALSO extremely worried that, should Warren drop out, we’ll hear even more cries of “Joe needs to pick a Republican veep to win!”

          Hah. Why when there are so many Democrats who are basically Republicans? Some of them were in this election ffs.

      • I don’t believe that. I think Warren is sincere, has vision, and is the better candidate. Why would you assume she’s playing the Jill Stein role?

        • …not saying it’s Volante’s answer…but I think some equate her staying in through to the convention with the scenario where the ticket goes to Biden & Bernie runs as an independent

          …to me the two are worlds apart, though?

          • I see what you’re saying and there is a certain logic to that. I bristled at the implication that she’s a spoiler for Sanders though. In 2016 the Green Party openly encouraged Bernie supporters to switch their votes to Stein. I don’t think that’s Warren’s plan. Or that she’s in league with the DNC against Sanders.

        • She’s still a party member. With everything else DNC brass has pulled, I can’t not consider the possibility she’s staying in as a delegate spoiler.

          • The DNC is definitely up to no good, just like in 2016, but I don’t think Warren is in on the fix. We’ll just have to disagree on this one.

  2. I mean, what are the chances that Biden pulls some “centrist” Republican votes in the general? Is there any such thing anymore? Can there be any such thing as a “swing voter” in this climate?

    • He’ll pull about three, maybe four. There’s Tom in Nebraska, Lucille in South Dakota and Victor in Florida. Probably one or two others.

      I’m not panicking, though. I think the same calculation applies to Sanders. No matter who is the candidate, the Democrats will have to pull out all the stops, and I think that is what will really push the party to the left, not the guy at the top of the ticket.

      • “No matter who is the candidate, the Democrats will have to pull out all the stops, and I think that is what will really push the party to the left, not the guy at the top of the ticket.”

        This can’t be overstated. We are so focused on the president, which is super important, but a Biden presidency with a bunch of progressive shit happening around the country and (fingers crossed) in Congress is better than a progressive presidency without that stuff. The stuff underneath, long-term, matters just as much or more as the guy at the top.

    • This doesn’t make ME like Biden but a bunch of the more influential never Trumpers (::hand-job motion::) like him. I don’t want to cater to those assholes but maybe we can at least benefit from some swing voting.

      • If that’s the result, then perhaps Bernie isn’t popular enough with the base to win in the general. These aren’t super delegates being handed out, this is the votes cast by the people themselves.

        Is it disappointing that so few voters actively want progress? Fuck yes it is. I for one am counting my lucky stars that the likelihood of an even worse option than Biden is being removed from the table. Bloomberg would have virtually guaranteed a Trump win if he stayed in and used his money to sway a brokered convention.

        No one in my family was going to vote for that asshole if he did.

          • It’s more than a little presumptuous to assume the remaining Warren supporters are all Sanders supporters waiting to happen.

            When she does drop out, it’s just as likely that a majority of her supporters will jump to Biden. Her vote share increased when other moderate candidates dropped out. She may just pick up a good portion of Bloomberg’s voters.

            She may just be Biden’s last spoiler.

            • …I think at this point I’ve made it fairly clear that I think in a more ideal scenario she’d be the viable candidate & the support going to Bernie would largely or entirely be hers

              …but things being as they are I’d still rather she were in there in the hope that people continue to make it clear the appetite for what she offers exists rather than remove herself from the race & sit it out from the sidelines with the rest of us

              …there’s a spectrum of different fronts on which this process takes place & several ways that she holds a better position to exert some influence over the pitch the party ultimately makes to the country under whichever banner they chose to run with (most likely Biden but maybe Bernie) if she hangs in there…so I’m at least trying to think about it in less negative terms?

              I keep telling myself that it’s never for all the marbles…it may be imperative the dotardest one be unseated but that’s not all the marbles either…we ought to be hedging bets all over town by pushing hard for people to vote blue down ticket like their lives depended on it…& settling in to maintaining that push through election cycle after election cycle for decades…

              fucking shit up is way easier & faster than building things that can last in the longer term…let alone better things than the busted ass things we’ve got…so we don’t look like we get to see Liz take a shot this time…but it isn’t as though she stopped being a massive asset to team let’s-try-un-fucking-things-for-a-change?

              • I fully plan on pushing for whoever comes out of this process. Especially now that Bloomberg is out. And again pushing for down ticket voting. Just like I did last year when Bernie lost and I had to line up behind Clinton.

                I’m just so damned tired of the same shit being repeated cycle after cycle, people pretending that it’s new shit, and being told it’s not sexism. Especially by people who aren’t women. Not taking personal shots at anyone here, just stating what women see.

                Misogyny has it’s own dog whistles. We hear them. We’re fucking tired.

                  • It’s not the most popular stance in these parts, but I’ve been on team Hillary, Biden, and Sanders sitting this one out from the jump. I think we would have had a much better chance at letting bad blood stay in the past if they all sat it out.

                    We needed new blood. What we got was a do over to satisfy the egos of old men, and a salty Clinton sniping from the side.

            • I’ve got a hard time buying that particular narrative. Warren is way closer to Sanders than Biden. My guess is that any voters who swing from her to Biden are simply the ones who would like a much more liberal agenda, but don’t have the stones to put their vote where their hearts are when push comes to shove. You know the ones–they’re afraid of being called dirty socialists.

                • Ok, you lost me. What, then do people consider if not ideology? Biden and Sanders are worlds apart on ideology–which is one of the major topics of conversation when people explain their choice. They might couch it in bullshit terms like “electability”, but that’s just covering up the real issue of ideology. When someone says they’d rather support Biden over Sanders because they think Biden is a safer choice, or because they think he has the best shot at beating Trump, or because they think he’ll be a more effective president, it’s about their stance on the ideology. So, you’re going to have to spoon feed this one to me because I’m not getting it.

                  • Respecrfully, no I don’t need to spoon feed it to you. Either you understand that the people here and other corners of the internet that parse ideology and policy are the minority, or you don’t. I’m not in the mood to explain politics as a hobby when the phenomenon, or the majority of voters being low information can be easily googled.

                    • I submit that putting forth a vague argument and then refusing to actually explain that argument doesn’t help whatever case you’re tying to make. I’m fully aware of the scourge of the low information voter and in fact I suggest that ideology and policy are not the same thing. Policy is for informed and engaged voters. Ideology is the basest means by which most people make their choice, low information or not. Sure there are people who vote based primarily on the skin color or sex of the candidate but those are not in the majority. Low information Republicans vote based on the ideology of perpetuating racism, sexism, and hatred of the poor. The policies could literally be anything as long as they are couched in that basic ideology. Low information Democratic voters tend to vote based on the ideology that corporations need to be kept under control, supporting the middle class (whatever that means), and more recently the notion that healthcare is a human right (although that notion is by no means universal). Again the policies can be whatever (ACA anyone?) as long as they’re couched in that ideology.

                      All that’s to say that Warren has made no secret of her support for single payer healthcare, breaking up huge corporations, taxing rich people and regulating the hell out of Wall Street. While some of her voters may peel off to Biden, I would bet real money that the vast majority go to Sanders.

                  • …I’ll take a stab at it?

                    …I think (& I may very well be wrong) that where IWNCMT says “ideology” in this instance they essentially mean if you were to look at a venn diagram & shift your allegiances only between candidates where the overlap was significant it wouldn’t explain some of the 1st choice to 2nd choice leaps some people are making…or indeed seem to have made towards Biden at the last minute if the polling pre-polling is to be lent credence

                    …which I can see as being arguably distinct from the kind of overall calculation a lot of folks make when deciding who to vote for on a more gut-reaction basis…like who “reads” like they have the best shot?

                    …at least speaking for myself a fair bit of that last thing isn’t really about ideology so much as pragmatism, I think?

                    • This is what I’m seeing people thinking about in this primary:

                      And as much as I am entertained by Randy, this is dangerous! A lot of people don’t even know what they’re voting for, just as long as it ain’t Trump, at least imho.

                    • This. Exactly. And it’s not a vague argument either. Not trying to be rude, but it’s a pretty basic premise. Not one that I in any way pulled out of my ass. I’m just not in a space where I feel the need to explain something like that as if I jumped the shark in the conversation.

                      It’s in every piece when reporters talk to voters about their 1st and 2nd choice, and the resulting comment sections. There have been multiple articles linked to here and the GMO sites where the commentary has been a summarized “WTF How?” and the responses make the same conclusion, they’re not voting on ideology, they’re just voting on who they like more. It’s regularly discussed on LOD discord.

                      There have been countless think pieces and analysis on low information voting. How little the majority of voters analyze or understand a candidates policy/platform/political “lanes”. How elections have been decided on which candidate voters would like to drink a beer with more. On sites we all read, which led us here.

                      It doesn’t matter to anyone other than ideologically driven voters that Bernie is the closest to Warren in policies. That’s not how the majority votes. Polling of voters second choices have always shown that Warrens voters only chose Bernie about 1/3 of the time.

                      Voters’ Second-Choice Candidates Show A Race That Is Still Fluid

                    • …in fairness to butcherbaker there (& because apparently that’s as far as these threads hold out so replying to you rather than myself is apparently not an option) I think there’s also a phenomenon whereby these kinds of numbers are broken down & built up in so many permutations that the shorthand a lot of people develop so as to not spend a shitload of time trying to “stay informed” can come down to a sort of tribalism…in a “through a glass, darkly” kind of way

                      …& here & there I have heard that described in terms of ideology?

                      …I don’t think anyone was particularly trying to take a shot at anyone but there’s a lot of inherent friction in the backdrop of these kinds of discussions & it’s easy to read things that way sometimes…not least since the terminology that gets used & abused in political discourse is a minefield in its own right?

    • I imagine he’ll use as much money as he’s legally allowed, and illegally can get away with supporting Biden since it’s in his interest to stop Sanders or Warren from getting the nomination.

      • I’m all for him spending all his money in the general to get Biden elected (since that is all but inevitable now). I would prefer he spent it on Senate races or to buy Fox News & dump all the staff or better yet, turn Hannity & crew into Liberals.

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