
…it’s clearly going to be one of “those” days
MPs voted down all 10 amendments made by peers over the past few weeks to return the bill to the form in which it was initially passed by the Commons in January, giving a much-needed boost to the beleaguered prime minister.
The safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill, which is designed to overcome the supreme court’s objections to the plan, will return to the Lords later this week. Peers will then have to decide whether to reinsert their amendments and slow down the bill’s passage once more.
[…]
The rejection of the amendments provides some welcome relief for the prime minister after a difficult few weeks that culminated over the weekend in speculation that Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, could be lining up a bid to replace him before the election.Sunak has urged his party to keep faith with his leadership, promising on Monday that 2024 “will be the year Britain bounces back”.
He is hoping that a combination of falling inflation, accelerating growth and the long-awaited start to his Rwanda plan will help boost the Tories’ flagging poll ratings later in the year.
…I mean…this is the thing where the man who just in that last few days said he wasn’t looking to “go to the country” with a general election on the same day as the local ones coming up at the beginning of may…because he thinks he can improve on his likely verdict in one of those if he can move some needles first…is trying to move a big performative one by sticking a couple of hundred refugees on a plane to rwanda the way texas likes to bus people from the mexican border to martha’s vineyard or wherever…which currently involves a lot of people making stentorian pronouncements about “the sovereignty of parliament”…which in this instance means more or less explicitly parliament’s right to enact legislation in contravention to existing law produced by other governing bodies…like…say…institutions who wouldn’t agree to decreeing that it is a “safe” country for the purposes of punting refugees over there…while being capable of representing a deterrent on the basis that “if you try to come here we’ll make sure you get sent there so you’re better off forgetting about the whole idea”…but…fuck…it’s like they got a MAGA consultant to write the shit up…it is…bad…it’s just badly conceived & the way they composed it is even worse
Among the 10 amendments peers have made to the bill in recent weeks was one that would have forced ministers to abide by domestic and international law. Others included preventing the government from declaring Rwanda a safe country until Kigali implements a series of safeguards it has promised, and exempting those who have worked with the British armed forces abroad from being deported to the African country.
…& that’s not even getting into the part where they worded it so that once they deemed it “safe” it would…stay that way…until they made a new law to say that by law it wasn’t…it’s…basically fucking insane…I mean…the tory party is basically the only one voting for this thing…& bits of even that bloc think it’s bonkers…& they killed an amendment that required obeying the fucking law…how is that not the quiet part with access to a fucking bullhorn?
Opening the debate on Monday afternoon, Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, told the Commons: “This bill is an essential element of our wider strategy to protect our borders and to stop the boats, to prevent the tragic loss of lives at sea caused by dangerous, illegal and unnecessary crossings across the Channel.”
…uh huh
He added: “I don’t accept that the provisions of the bill undermine the rule of law, and the government takes its responsibilities and its international obligations incredibly seriously. There’s nothing in the bill that requires any act or omission which conflicts with our international obligations.”
…sure…& israeli spokespeople don’t accept that anyone other than hamas bears responsibility for the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians & a state of incipient famine throughout gaza…saying some shit don’t mean it has even a tenuous connection to reality…I mean…what reading of your international obligations lets you claim that contravening international law is in keeping with those…for a start?
Officials say that if the Lords chooses to add in more amendments, it is unlikely to pass until Easter. Even then, however, they believe they will still hit the spring deadline.
A Downing Street official said: “The timeline remains unchanged, whether the bill is passed before or after Easter.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/18/mps-vote-to-throw-out-amendments-to-rwanda-deportation-bill
…as far as I can tell…the way the timeline remains unchanged even if the bill gets further delayed…is that they want the first plane to take off before they open the polling booths for that general election…which has to happen before the end of jan ’25…because they’ve missed their window for a slot in the queue for a runway on a serial basis for a year or more already…so…we seem to have reached the stage of just saying words with no regard for their meaning & then trying to look like you think everything’s going your way without resembling the dog from the “this is fine” meme…not that that’s hard…because mostly it seems like people couldn’t give a fuck…they’re too busy speculating about the royal family & whether if you look different without professional makeup & amateur photoshop…you’re a body double
Kate Middleton Is Expected to Soft Launch Herself During an Easter Walk [Cosmopolitan (yesterday, by the looks of it)]
EXCLUSIVE: Inside top secret plan for Kate Middleton’s return to public life as aides work around clock [Daily Mirror (probably just “Mirror” now but not in my head)]
…then the sun ran some story with a still from a video clip that then popped up I-dunno-where-or-why-I-should-care & she…doesn’t look like she usually does…so…everyone’s been very responsible & restrained
Here’s Why Kate Middleton and Prince William Divorce Rumors Are Spreading and Where They Came From [Cosmopolitan…uhhhh…also yesterday?]
…so…yeah…that’s how it’s going…there’s case studies
…the rocket’s red glare is looking increasingly like an emergency distress flare
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/16/arizona-election-denial-consequences
…while here & there poster boys for megalomania show ’em how it’s done
…they squarin’ circles everyplace you look, seems like
Judge rules Reddit and YouTube must face lawsuits claiming they enabled Buffalo grocery mass shooter [NBC]
…uh huh…the people who made & sold the guns & ammo, though…nah?
…really? …I’m fucking shocked…there just weren’t any any…whatchamacallits…warning signs
…he means ketamine, apparently…which he can’t be taking much of or he’d finally shut the fuck up as it separated his brain from its sensory inputs & his mouth & his fingers wouldn’t work for a period I’d probably refer to as “blessed relief”…but…we could do worse than have a vet put him out of our misery…just sayin’…anyway…back to arguing black is white until you’re blue in the face
Trump says Jews who vote for Democrats ‘hate’ Israel and ‘their religion’ [NBC]
…if you are either dumb enough to swallow that…or you’ve been under a rock for a few years & are unaware of the heaping helping of flack biden’s taking for being way too onside with israel & incomprehensibly don’t know any better…frankly it’s irresponsible to go around voting & you should go read a few banned books & take a history class before attempting to interact with this millenium…but…well…that’s probably not going to happen, either
Trump’s mixed-up, invented and false account of his first impeachment [WaPo]
…not that that’s a problem when you can just say it did…allegedly…this shit is no joke
In an interview with Donald Trump that aired over the weekend, Fox News host Howard Kurtz presented Trump with a not-exactly-novel theory: that Trump uses “over the top, sometimes inflammatory language” to draw attention.
…a joke is all it should be…but nothing about this is funny
“Now, if I don’t get elected,” he continued, “it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.”
Here’s what we can say: Trump might indeed have been speaking metaphorically in this case. But the broader context here is vital. And that context is that Trump has repeatedly invoked the prospect of actual violence by his supporters while speaking about similar circumstances — his losing or facing criminal accountability, for example. We also saw a pronounced example of his supporters seizing on his rhetoric when they stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
[…]
Regardless, a focus on the one word misses the point. It’s not that this isolated comment is particularly egregious; it’s that it is merely the latest example of this kind of rhetoric. And the rhetoric is often more direct:
- Trump in 2016 said that if he were denied the presidential nomination at the GOP convention, “I think you’d have riots.”
- Trump in November 2020 responded to an adverse ruling by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court by saying it would “induce violence in the streets.” (Trump later expanded, saying, “Bad things will happen, and bad things lead to other type things. It’s a very dangerous thing for our country.”)
- Trump warned last March of “potential death & destruction” if he were charged by the Manhattan district attorney. He also mocked those who urged his supporters to stay peaceful, saying, “OUR COUNTRY IS BEING DESTROYED, AS THEY TELL US TO BE PEACEFUL!”
- Trump warned in August, after the search of his Mar-a-Lago estate, that “terrible things are going to happen.” He later promoted a comment from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that there would be “riots in the streets” if Trump were charged.
- Trump in January warned of “bedlam in the country” if the criminal charges against him succeeded. Days earlier, he targeted efforts to remove him from the ballot using the 14th Amendment, saying: “Because if we don’t [get treated fairly], our country’s in big, big trouble. Does everybody understand what I’m saying? I think so.”
And this doesn’t even account for the many, many examples of his alluding more suggestively to righteous violence by his supporters. He does this a lot. Sometimes it’s direct; sometimes it’s veiled and carries with it the plausible deniability that he craves.
…fucker thinks he’s michael corleone…when he’s vlad’s fredo…it’s…sad…& one sorry fucking picture
[…there was more to this a moment ago…but then wordpress logged me out…the laptop seized up & then announced it needed to reboot for some sort of obligatory update & I ended up finding what remains of this post on my phone to push it live while I figure out if I have time to rebuild it…or remember what I typed the first time…or which tunes I picked…which…not currently but maybe after more coffee?]
At a 2020 presidential debate, Trump was asked to repudiate violence by white supremacists and the Proud Boys, a far-right group. Trump responded by telling the Proud Boys not to “stand down,” as had been suggested, but to “stand back and stand by.” That set off a fuss similar to the one we see today, with Trump allies and media critics asserting that this was much ado about nothing — just some awkward phrasing! For days, Trump and his White House resisted calls to clarify.
Months later, the Proud Boys — who in real time appeared to interpret Trump’s comments as a call to action — played a central role in the Capitol insurrection.
Also interpreting Trump’s various comments as a call to action, according to their legal defenses: many other Jan. 6 defendants.
With that kind of history, it’s certainly a choice for Trump to keep talking like this. And there was even a time when Republicans worried about what Trump might be fomenting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/18/bloodbath-aside-trumps-violent-rhetoric-is-unambiguous/
[…]
You can argue that one comment is being blown out of proportion. But the track record here is clear.
…you don’t have to be a pasty old dude to spout shite for a living
The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s classified-documents case issued an unusual order late Monday regarding jury instructions at the end of the trial — even though she has not yet ruled on when the trial will be held, or a host of other issues.
U.S. District Court Judge Aileen M. Cannon instructed lawyers to file proposed jury instructions by April 2 on two topics that are related to defense motions to have the indictment dismissed outright.
[…]
In that hearing, she sounded skeptical that Trump’s attack on the Espionage Act, or his embrace of the Presidential Records Act, were strong enough to save the former president and likely 2024 Republican White House nominee from a criminal trial. At the same time, she suggested that aspects of Trump’s arguments might be valid enough to come into play during jury instructions.
…it can’t take the weight of forming part of proceedings but it’s good enough for government work? …incoherent much?
Juries are instructed on how to weigh the evidence just before they begin deliberating, so Cannon’s focus on this topic suggests she is not only thinking ahead to a trial of the former president, but already zeroing in on the end, rather than the beginning, of such a proceeding.
Her two-page order, however, also suggests an openness to some of the defense’s claims that the Presidential Records Act allows Trump or other presidents to declare highly classified documents to be their own personal property. National security law experts say that is not what the law says, or how it has been interpreted over decades by the courts, particularly given the other laws that govern national security secrets.
…in a lot of contexts we call that “making shit up as you go along”
Cannon asked the prosecutors and defense attorneys to consider two different hypothetical situations, writing: “the parties must engage with the following competing scenarios and offer alternative draft text that assumes each scenario to be a correct formulation of the law.”
…don’t let “conflicts with the law in the sense of being diametrically opposed” fool you…this is how I already decided this will go so you’d better be ready…is kinda…batshit crazy shit for a judge to up & say on the record
In the first scenario, Cannon said, the jury would be allowed to review a former president’s possession of a record and make a factual finding whether “it is personal or presidential using the definitions set forth in the Presidential Records Act,” also known as the PRA.
Confusingly, she added in a footnote that any “separation of powers or immunity concerns shall be included in this discussion if relevant.” Immunity is a topic for judges to decide, not juries, so it was not immediately clear what that language in Cannon’s order meant.
The second scenario Cannon describes is one in which a president “has sole authority under the PRA to categorize records as personal or presidential during his/her presidency. Neither a court nor a jury is permitted to make or review such a categorization decision.”
That second hypothetical would appear to be one in which Trump seemingly could not be convicted under almost any set of facts of improperly possessing classified documents. It was not immediately clear how Cannon envisions a trial potentially based on that premise.
…presumably she envisions continuing to hurl the jurisprudential equivalent of excrement at every wall in sight & hoping some of it sticks when it gets appealed up the chain to what marcy wheeler seems to have taken to referring to as R-SCOTUS…damned if anything else makes any kind of “sense”?
After the hearing last week, Cannon issued a short order saying that while some of Trump’s arguments about the Espionage Act warrant “serious consideration,” she thought it was too early to dismiss charges based on disagreements over the definition of some terms in the World War I-era law.
At the same time, she suggested Trump could raise the issue later “in connection with jury-instruction briefing and/or other appropriate motions,” an invitation that appears to have led to Monday’s order. Trump had argued in his motion that the Espionage Act, which has been used for decades to convict others of improperly possessing classified documents, was too vaguely worded to be used in his indictment.
…even when he wants slack she can’t give him there she is going out of her way not to take strings off his bow
It is one of four criminal trials Trump is facing, and his lawyers have fought to try to delay them all until after the election. Cannon originally scheduled the Florida trial to begin the week of May 20, but she has made clear more time is needed to sort through pretrial issues having to do with using classified documents as evidence. She held a hearing to discuss a new trial date on March 1 but has not yet ruled.
Trump and his Florida co-defendants also have filed a number of other motions seeking to dismiss the case, including a claim by Trump that he is the target of a vindictive, politically motivated prosecution.
While those motions were not the topic of Cannon’s hearing on Thursday, Trump’s lawyers referred several times during their arguments to other public officials who were not charged after classified documents were found at their homes — including the recent decision by special counsel Robert K. Hur not to charge President Biden.
Those cases, the lawyers argued, show the charges against their client were unjustified and politically motivated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/18/trump-judge-cannon-jury-instructions-pra/
…they’re literally out here arguing that since their version of this sort of prosecution is unjustified & politically motivated…it’s equally an unjustifiable act of political motivation to pursue a genuinely guilty party…with zero semblance of having any consciousness of irony…& mostly enough people couldn’t care less for that to be viable
Trump calls for Liz Cheney to be jailed for investigating him over Capitol attack [Guardian]
…in a sane world that shit I just said would be irresponsible hyperbole…but…that new remix on his favorite chorus of “lock her up”…says what I said is slap in the middle of the overton window where we’re supposed to be able to tell ourselves we can’t be looking at an extreme
Like a lot of other people, I don’t use my X account much anymore. I prefer to post on Threads, because X (formerly Twitter) has become such a cesspool of hate speech and conspiracy-mongering. The problem became especially acute following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel when the platform was flooded with antisemitic and anti-Muslim misinformation. It’s like watching a once-nice neighborhood go to seed, with well-maintained houses turning into ramshackle drug dens.
What galls me is that, as a taxpayer, I wind up subsidizing X’s megalomaniacal and capricious owner, Elon Musk. His privately held company SpaceX is a major contractor — to the tune of many billions of dollars — for the Defense Department, NASA and the U.S. intelligence community. He is also chief executive of Tesla, which benefits from generous government subsidies and tax credits to the electric-vehicle industry.
Musk needs to decide whether he wants to be the next Donald Trump Jr. (i.e., a major MAGA influencer) or the next James D. Taiclet (the little-known CEO of Lockheed Martin, the country’s largest defense contractor). Currently, Musk is trying to do both, and that’s not sustainable. He is presiding over a fire hose of falsehoods on X about familiar right-wing targets, from undocumented immigrants to “the woke mind virus” to President Biden … while reaping billions from Biden’s administration!
The Center for Countering Digital Hate reported a surge of extremist content on X since Musk took over in 2022 and fired most of the platform’s content moderators. The center found tweets decrying “race mixing,” denying the Holocaust and praising Adolf Hitler. The thin-skinned tech mogul responded by filing suit; early indications are that the federal judge hearing the case is skeptical of X’s claims.
Musk is unlikely to have any more success with his lawsuit against Media Matters for America, a nonprofit that documented pro-Nazi posts on X alongside ads for major companies, leading to an exodus of advertisers. Indeed, Musk, who styles himself as a “free speech absolutist,” appears to be using legal action simply to intimidate critics into silence.
Musk’s claims that his platform isn’t spewing hate speech and conspiracy theories are undermined by the fact that he is one of the chief spewers. On his X account, which has 176 million followers, Musk has boosted the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, which holds that prominent Democrats are child molesters. He has endorsed a tweet suggesting that graduates of historically black colleges have low IQs and therefore U.S. airlines are risking disaster by recruiting them as pilots. (“It will take an airplane crashing and killing hundreds of people for them to change this crazy policy of DIE,” Musk wrote in January, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion programs, usually abbreviated as DEI.) He has echoed Donald Trump’s unfounded assertions that the electoral system is riddled with fraud; for instance, Musk claimed that “illegals are not prevented from voting in federal elections.” In fact, only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections and there is no evidence of widespread fraud.
Musk’s modus operandi, like Trump’s, is not to retract or apologize for false statements but, instead, to insult his critics; he memorably told advertisers who have left X to “go f— yourself.” One of the few times Musk has expressed any remorse was after he endorsed an antisemitic screed in November. An X user accused “Jewish communities” of promoting “hatred against whites” and added gleefully that “western Jewish populations” were “coming to the disturbing realization that those hordes of minorities … flooding their country don’t exactly like them too much.” Musk’s response: “You have said the actual truth.” After advertisers fled and the White House condemned “this abhorrent promotion of antisemitic and racist hate,” Musk said, “I handed a loaded gun to those who hate me and to those who are antisemitic and for that I am quite sorry.”
Musk is a MAGA megaphone and a federal contractor. That’s a problem. [WaPo]
…I’d…call it something else
“I challenge you, Elon, to watch the whole interview and tell the world why this isn’t what you claim you want on X,” Lemon said before introducing the interview, which was posted Monday on X and YouTube.
“I think we have a responsibility to adhere to the law,” Musk said, adding that if a post is illegal, “we’re going to take it down.” To remove posts that didn’t break the law would mean “we’re putting our thumb on the scale or being censors,” he argued.
When Lemon questioned whether X has become a breeding ground for conservative conspiracy theories, Musk responded that “old Twitter was fundamentally a tool of the far left.” But when it came to questions about his own posts — which have recently tilted to the right — Musk said that he often reposts things he doesn’t entirely agree with but thinks “that people should consider.”
…not done with this one
…he’s not a free speech absolutist…he’s an exponent of…call it anti-censorship in the sense of matter:antimatter…look at this shit
A far-right Austrian who received donations from and communicated with the Christchurch terrorist before the 2019 attack has had his X account restored, with X owner Elon Musk replying to one of his tweets.
The founder of the so-called Identitarian Movement, Martin Sellner, who preaches the superiority of European ethnic groups, was banned from Twitter in 2020 under the former management along with dozens of other accounts linked to the movement amid criticism over the platform’s handling of extremist content.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/19/elon-musk-replies-x-twitter-martin-sellner-far-right-identitarian-movement-christchurch-terrorist-attack
…the world’s most irresponsible edgelord with another deep cut, folks…he doesn’t think he can have a thumb on the scales…because…I dunno…someone told him they were opposable digits & he won’t hold for opposition so he cut his off the way van gogh lopped off an ear…it wouldn’t make any less sense to me, any road…anyway…where had I got to?
When Lemon asked about Musk’s recently reported encounter with Donald Trump, Musk said that it happened by chance while he was having breakfast at friend’s home in Florida. (The New York Times reported that wealthy Republican donors were among other attendees.) When Lemon pressed for details about what was discussed, Musk seemed flustered and waited a few moments to respond. “Let’s just say, he did most of the talking,” Musk said.
He declined to specify what they spoke about, except to deny that Trump asked him to contribute to his presidential campaign or to help pay his legal bills. Musk said that he does not plan to donate to any candidate’s campaign.
“I don’t want to put a thumb on the scale monetarily,” Musk said.
…pull the other one…it’s got bells on…you fucking soup-brained arrested development cliché of a failure to launch…the fuck do you call the unbelievable bath you took on buying your virtual bullhorn you tiresome fucking lickspittle?
In response to questions about his resistance to diversity, equity and inclusion policies (which Musk has decried as racist), Musk argued that the country should “move on” and not make racism “a constant subject.”
Of late, Musk has been retweeting posts that promote misinformation about the intelligence of racial minorities, Mother Jones has reported. He’s also been posting frequently about the Biden administration’s immigration polices, repeatedly claiming Democrats want to maximize the number of undocumented immigrants in the country to help win the election.
“We are all descended from slaves,” Musk said during the interview with Lemon.
…for fuck’s actual sake…he…scion of an apartheid-era emerald fortune…& one of the wealthiest white men the world has ever borne the brunt of…said that shit to a black man in america…&…he. doesn’t. get. why. that’s. a. red. flag. the. size. of. fucking. texas.
The most tense exchange in the interview arose when Lemon brought up Musk’s previous statement that X advertisers could “kill” the platform with a boycott. (Several advertisers left the platform over concerns their ads were appearing alongside antisemitic content and other hate speech.)
When Lemon suggested that the companies’ suspension of their advertising was a form of free speech, and that Musk might bear responsibility if X fails, he grew frustrated.
“You said, ‘If they kill the company, it’s them,’ but doesn’t the buck stop with you?” Lemon asked.
Musk appeared rattled.
“Don, I have to say, choose your questions carefully,” he responded. “There’s five minutes left.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/18/elon-musk-don-lemon-interview/
…you know…what with feeling like it might make me happy if the “five minutes left” referred to an oxygen supply somewhere elon was going to be for…let’s just say, “longer”…I may not be in with a shot at the good place…but…I’m getting increasingly tempted to start believing in some sort of god because sub-deity levels of vengeful retributive suffering on an infinite timescale just don’t seem like enough consequences for some particular examples of the possibly failed experiment that is humanity
…if anyone knows “the fat lady”…let her know I’m down if she wants to start singing…because quite frankly the number of things that have gone on too long & gone way too far in the process is itself now a list too long to contend with & some…or…fuck…I dunno…maybe all of it…needs to be over, already…that we haven’t brought about armageddon is not the same as things being sustainable…& we are way beyond things being beyond a joke?
[…eh…it’s not quite what it ended up being the first time…but…close enough…damned if I can remember the tune selection, though…so…that part might take me a moment]
The thought of Elon Musk going down a k-hole would be a blessed relief. I never saw the appeal but I had a friend who was a fan. One of the things it does is it makes you incredibly tactile and horny. This might explain Elmo’s 23 kids or however many he has.
…ketamine is an odd duck…at least in terms of “recreational” drugs…good example of the thing about dosage being the difference between medicine & poison, though?
…we talk about it as a horse tranquilizer…which might be one of our more defensible approaches to drugging animals…since the ways we put adults under are deemed unsuitable for pediatric contexts…where they use it as a general anesthetic
…but as pharmacological crutches go…if you’re looking to literally divorce your mind from reality at the subjective level by making it think its inputs are AWOL…it’s right up there
…so…to be honest…I can see him taking a maintenance dose just to survive being conscious & elon musk…which has to suck on a truly epic scale…but in terms of explaining the progeny…gotta think it would make more sense if it was the other parent that was dosed to the gills?
And apparently he has had twins with another woman in-between baby one and two with Grimes. One hopes that they have already received their payouts in cash and irrevocable trusts . .
Tangentially related to the immigration section of this DOT:
I’m proud of this action of the City Council in the small city where I live. They unanimously passed an ordinance last month preventing local police and any city official from inquiring about a person’s immigration status unless it’s required by state or federal law or by court order, or reasonably necessary in the course of a criminal investigation. It also prohibits them from providing any information to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement that could result in civil or noncriminal immigration enforcement actions. Such sanctuary policies have been at the center of the national debate over immigration and border security ahead of the 2024 presidential election in November.
Money/power/ego explains his 23 children. Most of them were conceived through IVF and some via a surrogate. No sexy time involved…which might be a good thing for the moms.
*shudders at the thought of being touched by that man*
I bet his hands are moist…pardon me, my baconeggacheese is about to pay me a second visit.
RIP posted about this late in the day yesterday but I was out.
Trump can’t post bond because no one wants to give him the money
Yes, it’s my understanding that to use a bond company, you pay a percentage of the bond, and then the bond company is on the hook for the full amount if you don’t satisfy the judgment (like show up in court for a criminal bond) or if, in this case, you lose on appeal. The problem is not so much coming up with the percentage, it’s negotiating with the bond companies. Since it’s half a billion dollars and climbing fast, no company wants to take the risk of losing that big. So the real takeaway is:
1. Bond companies don’t think he can win on appeal.
2. Bond companies are concerned that if he were to win the election, he’d stiff them on the money, just because he could.
Even others with the necessary cash and the right-wing mentality (think Vlad and Elmo) are reluctant to spin the wheel with that much money at stake. Any bond company that even considers this would want a substantial percentage. Normal bail bonds are like 10 percent — I suspect these companies are demanding 30 percent or higher, which Trump doesn’t have.
And remember, all of his “property” is highly leveraged, and very possibly upside-down based on his lying (that’s when you owe more than the asset is worth). He can’t sell to raise money because he literally doesn’t own almost anything with the Trump name on it.
As an aside: Billionaires don’t try to launch cheesy sneaker lines.
Now New York can start seizing his properties, but I suspect they’re going to discover his ownership stake is virtually nonexistent.
I pretty strongly suspect his books are worse than the NY AG revealed, because they were limited to charging what was illegal. Contractual problems are between him and his lenders and partners.
In the past, if somone with a minority share in one of his buildings suspected a problem, the only option was going through a wildly lengthy and expensive lawsuit. But if he goes the bankruptcy route, the court is going to force a level of transparency which he may not survive.
I’m not convinced his net worth is zero, but I suspect there would be a cascading set of problems once a selloff started that shrank the value of a lot of his assets by large amounts. What you can get for a property if you have two years to make a deal is very different from what you can get if you have to sell off quickly.
…even over the longer timeframe…he still seems plenty screwed?
…he can claim mar-a-largo is worth eleventy bazillion dollars…so long as he doesn’t try to flog it
…but he won’t try flogging the one he lives in…& absent that bond the NY based entity he & his aren’t allowed to control for a bit…that only had stuff on the books the court just ruled wasn’t worth what he claimed…so…even cursory levels of due diligence aren’t going to result in offers that match the value used to collateralize his outstanding debts…so those can’t get paid off even if he eventually gets to plug his bond fund back in because clarence finds a way to hand it back to him on supreme appeal
…that’s circling the drain levels of financial doom if you run your shit the way he always has…he can fend it off with donations that let him keep pretending to be as rich as he was when he inherited but hadn’t spaffed that shit up every wall in sight…but he hasn’t been in a long ass time…& that part is in danger of becoming painfully clear to even bits of the world that haven’t known it all along
…wanted to reply to this earlier but it really has been a bit of a day…& the more aggravating elements only recently gave up making arbitrary demands…the way people do when they don’t think about what it would take to get something done but just who they can get to do it for them…after which they assume that it’s easier done than said & thus should take less time to do than to say…while avoiding pitfalls like doing what they actually said…which would turn out to be your mistake, not theirs…because apparently that’s what “following instructions” really means
…anyway…yes to all of your thing about where he looks to have problems…but also…this case in particular is one where that’s a fucking stupid basis to try to ask for loans…it literally turned on him making up numbers that weren’t reliable (or based on reality) to claim the value of his “assets” were way over any reasonable bout of optimism
…&…sure…he almost certainly made up the numbers in his filing…but…he clearly asked more than a couple of brokers & they asked a spread of surety providers…but whatever terms they offered required him…according to that filing as quoted by cnbc in the link @loveshaq posted yesterday…that
…which is 200% of the value of the penalty…which you can’t get to unless the only terms he got offered are “we’ll put it up if you can point to a place where twice as much will be sitting around doing nothing in case we need to call it in”…& if he could do that he wouldn’t need them
…the billion dollar requirement is…either the result of a standard calculation I’m unfamiliar with…or another number he just thought sounded good
…$557million seems a lot closer to a half billion…like “a half a billion & change”…than “approaching a billion”…but…any which way you stack it he’s running on empty…& if you’re right about the real equity he has in the real estate…if any of it isn’t underwater…then when/if they try to sell that shit out from under it’s going to make headlines when it still falls short & turns out to unravel his house of debt
…ah, yes…the old “I know you are but what am I?” defense…sure, chief…that’ll…have fucking less than no chance you feeble-minded fuckup
…it’s…bad…& all signs point to it getting worse…& I fucking hope he strokes out under the strain, to be honest?
It’s all shit isn’t it?
Look upon my works and despair.
Britain is becoming a toxic chemical dumping ground – yet another benefit of Brexit
But much of it is a lovely toxic chemical dumping ground. Although I suppose the nice parts aren’t toxic chemical dumping grounds. I’m thinking of my friends living in the Home Counties with some land, and dogs, so many dogs, and I bet their lawns and fields aren’t toxic chemical dumping grounds. One of my friends owns a very old house that came with its own cemetery, but the bodies therein were not toxic, as far as anyone knows. Maybe a touch of plague, but the house isn’t that old.
I have always said that when you live in New York you don’t really need to travel, the world comes to you. That’s true, but according to our Mayor we shapeshift and take on different roles. New York is the Mexico City of America? Sorry, hon, that would be LA. The Dublin of America? Have you ever been to Boston?
No idea what made me think of this:
Bringing back his Putin whisperer?
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/03/trump-considers-adding-paul-manafort-a-grave-counterintelligence-threat-to-his-campaign/
Nah, they wouldn’t use insider info…
https://popular.info/p/congress-stock-trading-addiction
Doing his part!
thanks google….thats the question i didnt quite know i was thinking of
Posted without comment:
I didn’t realize Gordon Brown was still alive. He’s actually only 73. I thought he was about 73 twenty years ago.
I just got here — I had A Morning — and am also shocked to find that Gordon Brown isn’t 107 years old at this point.
Here is Boggs, since I mentioned him yesterday.
Looks like a very happy cat! How can you NOT scratch that belly?
Oh no! A huge fluffball! And sleeping contentedly. Lucky Boggs.
Finally just saying this shit out loud!
https://www.thedailybeast.com/jared-kushner-pitches-moving-palestinians-out-of-gazas-valuable-waterfront